
Fantasy Focus: Start ’em, Sit ’em – Week 6
Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, the Gridiron Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.
Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your lineup every week, regardless of matchup. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions in this column.
(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)
Quarterback
Start: Jameis Winston (vs. Falcons)
This should be obvious. Winston was QB8 (fantasy points per game), second in YPA (8.1), second in PFF’s QB Rating under pressure, and he led everyone in passing yards per game (306.8) in his 11 full starts last season. This year, offensive coordinator Todd Monken has installed a high-flying, high-upside aerial attack that allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to lead all QBs in air yards per pass attempt (10.7) in his three-and-a-half games of action, per Next Gen Stats. Now, Winston returns for his first 2018 start to face an Atlanta defense that is ravaged by injuries. According to Next Gen, the Falcons are allowing a 98.5 Passer Rating (fifth-worst) and are permitting a 3.5 percent completion rate above expectation (third-worst). The last four fantasy finishes against Atlanta are as follows: QB7 (Newton), QB1 (Brees), QB9 (Dalton), and QB5 (Roethlisberger).
Running Back
Start: Aaron Jones (vs. 49ers)
Jones has been locked in a timeshare with Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery in his first three games back. Williams (41 percent snap rate) has led the way, while Jones (30 percent) and Montgomery (30 percent) share time. However, this week should be different. The Packers are monster home favorites over the Niners, which should lead to a positive game-script and more carries for Jones. To boot, San Francisco is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. Fire Jones up in a game the Packers should handle.
Wide Receiver
Sit: Michael Crabtree (vs. Titans)
Fantasy managers that selected Crabtree were sold a false bill of goods this year, as the struggling Ravens’ receiver is posting a career-low 52 percent catch rate. Crabtree has seen eight or more targets in four straight games, but he’s converted that sizable workload into a paltry 21/210 receiving (on 40 targets) in this span. Crabtree fantasy owners should look for higher upside options at this point.
Tight End
Start: Cameron Brate (vs. Falcons)
Over the last two years with Jameis Winston under center, Brate has seen 14 percent of Bucs’ targets and averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game. For reference, 10.7 FPG (PPR) is good enough to be fantasy’s TE7 right now. When Winston started last year, Bucs’ TEs led the NFL in fantasy points and now Brate gets to gobble up the majority of that production to himself against a Falcons secondary that is missing their two starting safeties (Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen).