Thursday, September 6th, 2018

Fantasy Focus: Start ’em, Sit ’em – Week 1

Graham Barfield

Fantasy Focus: Start ’em, Sit ’em – Week 1

Graham Barfield Fantasy Football, NFL

Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, Gridiron’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.

Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your line-up every week, regardless of match-up. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions.

(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)

Quarterback

Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo (at Vikings)
The ‘Niners are one of the NFL’s most intriguing stories this year, and Jimmy Garoppolo is in line for fringe QB1 (top-12) fantasy numbers over the full season. However, drafters that took Garoppolo as their weekly starter may want to look elsewhere for Week 1. The Vikings defense stifles enemy QBs, especially at home. Last year, Minnesota allowed the third-fewest Pass YPG (207.5), and they have held opposing offenses to fewer than 20 points scored in nine of their last ten home games (including playoffs).

Running Back

Start: Jamaal Williams (vs. Bears)
With Aaron Jones (suspended two games) out, the Packers’ backfield comes down to two men in Week 1: Williams and passing-down back, Ty Montgomery. The Bears front-seven received two massive face-lifts this offseason trading for edge rusher Khalil Mack just last week and adding stud LB Roquan Smith at No. 8 overall in the NFL Draft, but Williams’ role with Aaron Rodgers under centre is still too hard to ignore. Over the Packers final eight games last year (Weeks 10-17), Williams saw over 20 touches six times, finished as a top-24 (RB2 or better) back five times, and parlayed his usage into 93.3 yards from scrimmage per contest. Williams was fantasy’s RB8 in per game output, while only Marshawn Lynch (69%) handled a higher share of his team’s carries in that span than Williams (67%). Williams can also protect Rodgers in the pocket, as he owned PFF’s second-best pass-pro execution rate among qualified RBs last season.

Wide Receiver

Start: Will Fuller (at Patriots)
Per Next Gen Stats, the Patriots defense allowed six total deep pass TDs last year and coughed up the most Pass YPG (272.5) to aerial attacks. Will Fuller is healthy, practicing in full after a preseason hamstring scare, and is one of the NFL’s most lethal deep threats. Last year, Fuller saw 18% of Houston’s targets, 33% of passing air yards, and had a ridiculous 21.7-yard average depth of target at the catch point with Deshaun Watson under centre. In fact, 44% of Fuller’s fantasy points came via the deep pass (20+ yard throws) in 2017, nearly the same rate as Tyreek Hill (47%).

Tight End

Start: Delanie Walker (at Dolphins)
After being cleared from a preseason injury (toe), we have to be wheels up on Walker in Week 1. Last year against Miami, opposing offenses targeted TEs on 25.8% of throws, the third-highest rate in the league. In fact, the Dolphins allowed 5.80 receptions per game to tight ends, tied with the Browns’ notoriously leaky TE defense for most in NFL. Walker has led Tennessee in target share for four-straight seasons, so it’s a dream opening spot for the now-healthy veteran.

WHO YOU GOT?

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