Thursday, November 8th, 2018

Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 10

Graham Barfield

Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 10

Graham Barfield Fantasy Football, NFL

Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, the Gridiron Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.

Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your line-up every week, regardless of match-up. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions in this column.

(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)

Quarterback

Start: Baker Mayfield (vs Falcons)

With top-15 fantasy results in two of his last three games, Baker Mayfield enters Week 10 as a prime streamer in a likely shootout at home against the Falcons’ white-hot offense. On the full season, Nick Foles and Alex Smith are the only two signal-callers that have failed to finish as a top-ten fantasy QB1 against the Falcons’ injury-riddled defense. Since the Falcons’ defense has fallen apart and Matt Ryan is playing at his 2016 MVP level, opposing teams are forced to throw 65 percent of the time against them (fifth-highest rate). Not only are opponents very pass-happy against Atlanta — they’re efficient, too. Only Oakland, Tampa, Detroit and New Orleans permit more fantasy points per dropback than Atlanta. A willing scrambler as well, Mayfield has tremendous upside this week against a Falcons front seven that is permitting the sixth-most rushing yards per game to enemy QBs (21.6).

Running Back

Start: Duke Johnson (vs Falcons)

New coach, new usage. With offensive coordinator Todd Haley out of Cleveland, Johnson’s criminal underutilisation came to a screeching halt in Week 9 against Kansas City. He only saw one carry, but he tied a season-high in routes run (29) and set a new high in targets (9). With new OC Freddie Kitchens calling the shots, Johnson rewarded his born-again usage with 9/78/2 receiving. Now, Johnson is back on the PPR fantasy radar just in time for a Week 10 date with Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the most receptions to running backs for four-straight seasons.

Wide Receiver

Start: Josh Gordon (vs Titans)

Since becoming a full-time player for the Patriots a month ago, Josh Gordon easily leads the team in share of air yards (39 percent) and end zone targets (57 percent). In this span, Gordon has averaged 8.0 targets per day and caught at least four balls in each game. Now, he gets a cake draw against Titans’ struggling CB Malcolm Butler. Per Next Gen Stats, Butler has permitted 517 yards (fifth-most), six touchdowns (second-most), and a 13.4 percent catch rate above expectation (sixth-worst) when he’s the nearest defender. Look out!

Tight End

Start: Jordan Reed (vs Buccaneers)

Reed has been a floor play (at best) in fantasy this year, but we may finally see a ceiling week from the once-dominant tight end in Week 10. Tampa Bay is permitting a laughable 150.3 yards per game to opposing slot wideouts, easily the most in the NFL. The Bucs also permit the third-most yards to receivers ‘tight’ to the formation, teeing Reed up further for a monster game. Per Next Gen‘s tracking, Reed lines up in the slot 44 percent of the time and tight to formation on 33 percent of Washington’s snaps. If he can’t get it done in this spot as he runs over three-fourths of his routes against the most advantageous match-up in all of football, then all hope is lost…

WHO YOU GOT?

Well, we’ve put our necks on the line, but what do you think? Eagles at a (tush) push? Chiefs complete the...