Thursday, November 29th, 2018

Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 13

Graham Barfield

Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 13

Graham Barfield Fantasy Football, NFL

Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, the Gridiron Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.

Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your line-up every week, regardless of match-up. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions in this column.

(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)

Quarterback

Start: Marcus Mariota (vs. Jets)

Since the Titans’ Week 8 bye, Marcus Mariota has caught fire. In this span, he has completed 78 percent of his passes, has a 124.5 passer rating, a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, is averaging 9.6 YPA and has added 22/98/1 on the ground. For more context, Mariota’s 9.7 percent completion rate above expectation trails only Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson over the last four weeks. Mariota left the Titans’ Week 11 bout against the Colts early (elbow), but he’s finished as a top-eight fantasy passer in his three other games over the last month of action. Now, the Titans are in a prime bounce-back matchup against a Jets side that has allowed multiple passing scores in seven of their last eight games.

Running Back

Sit: Adrian Peterson (vs. Eagles)

Playing behind a patchwork offensive line, Peterson has turned his last 56 carries into just 171 yards on the ground (3.05 YPC) over the last month. The Eagles can draw even with the Redskins in the NFC East with a win on Monday night and could even force a three-way tie at the top if the Cowboys fall to the Saints on Thursday night. Even though Philadelphia’s season has been rocky, to say the least, they are still in control of their own destiny. In a must-win game for both sides, Washington will likely attempt to hide Colt McCoy and run Peterson heavily in Week 13. We’ll see if it works. If Washington gets behind early, we have to bank on a short score for Peterson to hit in fantasy, which has quickly become a tall task.

Wide Receiver

Start: Kenny Golladay (vs. Rams)

Without Marvin Jones (knee; IR) over the last two weeks, Kenny Golladay has garnered a massive role in the Lions offense. In this span, Golladay has been targeted on an enormous 30 percent of his routes. For perspective, that rate would tie Julio Jones for the current league lead among wide receivers. Golladay will face majority coverage from Marcus Peters and Troy Hill — both of whom are struggling immensely. Per Next Gen Stats, Peters is permitting a massive 136.4 passer rating (fourth-worst among qualified CBs) when he’s the nearest defender, while Hill (127.4 passer rating; 11th-worst) has not been much better.

Tight End

Start: Matt LaCosse (vs. Bengals)

Obviously, this is a streamer-only call. But, with Jeff Heuerman (ribs, lung) on season-ending IR, the Broncos starting tight end job falls to Matt LaCosse. Standing 6’6″ tall, LaCosse is likely to take over Heuerman’s moderately valuable red-zone and check-down role. In Weeks 9-12 without Demaryius Thomas, Heuerman saw 19 percent of Broncos’ targets and turned his 19 total passing looks into 16/147/1. Over the full season, Heuerman led Denver in red-zone targets per game (1.1). LaCosse will make his first start in a plus draw, too, as Cincinnati is allowing the fifth-most YPG (68.4) and ninth-most PPR points per target (1.61) to the position.

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