Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 3
Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, the Gridiron Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.
Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your lineup every week, regardless of matchup. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions in this column.
(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)
Quarterback
Start: Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Steelers)
No one saw this coming! Through two games against the Saints and Eagles, Ryan Fitzpatrick has caught absolute fire. In Week 1 against New Orleans, ‘Fitzmagic’ threw for 417 yards, four TDs and completed 75 percent of his passes. In Week 2 against Philadelphia, he went off again, this time against an even better defense: 402 yards, four TDs, and an unreal 82 percent completion rate.
Now, touchdown regression is coming. In his two nuclear performances, Fitzpatrick has thrown a touchdown on an other-worldly 13.1 percent of his passes. The average passing touchdown rate over the last four years is 4.5 percent while Fitzmagic’s career TD rate is 4.4 percent. What’s more, per Next Gen Stats, Fitzpatrick’s expected completion percentage in Weeks 1-2 is 65 percent — but he’s actually completed 79 percent! Next Gen Stats’ completion probability explains how difficult (or not) a pass attempt was. Essentially, Fitzpatrick has been both lethally accurate and certainly lucky on his passes thus far. Still, this is not the week to get off of the Fitzpatrick train. In Weeks 1-2, the Steelers have allowed a QB6 fantasy performance to Tyrod Taylor and were just demolished for six passing scores and a QB2 finish from Patrick Mahomes. Fitzpatrick is going to crash back to earth some, but the Bucs have the best supporting cast that Fitzpatrick has ever played with – by far.
Running Back
Sit: Chris Carson (vs. Cowboys)
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Seahawks backfield has devolved into a full-blown committee. In Weeks 1-2, Seattle split their backfield down the middle. Rookie Rashaad Penny has played on 37 percent of team snaps, the same rate as Chris Carson. Carson has run one more pass route than Carson, while Penny has the one-snap edge over Carson on third-downs. Penny has 24 total touches to Carson’s 19. Now, both Carson and Penny have to face a quietly-hot Cowboys’ defense this week. In Weeks 1-2, Dallas’ defense limited the Panthers and Giants to just 4.32 yards per play in their opening two games — the second-best clip in the league behind Baltimore (4.02 YPP allowed). Both Carson and Penny are fades until the ‘Hawks offensive line improves or one back runs away with the job.
Wide Receiver
Sit: Corey Davis (vs. Jaguars)
Corey Davis’ volume has been fantastic in Weeks 1-2 — but wise fantasy managers know to Sit ‘Em this week against the Jags’ defense. Davis is fifth among all receivers in target share (33%) and, even though we chase targets in fantasy, it’s a fruitless proposition to attack Jacksonville. Marcus Mariota (elbow) is still extremely questionable and Davis’ 20 targets have resulted in two WR4 or worse weekly finishes in fantasy to start the season. Now, he gets the best defense in the NFL on the road.
Tight End
Start: George Kittle (at Chiefs)
Kittle flopped in Week 2 against the Lions (2/22 receiving on four targets), but he is primed for a bounce-back this week against a failing Chiefs’ secondary. Last week, Kansas City allowed 8/164 receiving to Steelers TEs Jesse James and Vance McDonald. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs have allowed a massive 150.9 Passer Rating on pass targets tight to the offensive formation — the third-highest clip in the NFL. Kittle leads the ‘Niners in target share (22%) to begin the year, while San Francisco will have to air it out to keep up with the Chiefs’ high-flying offense. This is about as good of a match-up a tight end could have.