
Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 4
Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, the Gridiron Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.
Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your lineup every week, regardless of matchup. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions in this column.
(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)
Quarterback
Sit: Andrew Luck (vs. Texans)
The time to panic about Andrew Luck is now. Through three games, no quarterback has a lower average depth of throw than Luck (5.5 yards). T.Y. Hilton’s average air yards per target have subsequently cratered. Finally, Luck’s 5.3 Pass YPA is significantly worse than Joe Flacco’s league-low last season (5.7). Luck was forced to chuck the rock 53 times in Week 1, leading to a QB11 weekly finish, but he has ended up outside of the top-20 fantasy quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks.
Quarterback fantasy scoring is largely replaceable, and Luck’s low-upside peripherals knock him out of the weekly starters tier. There is no way to feel comfortable starting Luck in Week 4 against a Texans front seven that has forced a tight-window throw on 23.6 percent of attempts this season, the best clip in the NFL per Next Gen Stats. A total of 22 QBs are averaging more fantasy points per game than Luck through three weeks.
Running Back
Start: James White (vs. Dolphins)
Now down Rex Burkhead (neck; injured reserve), the Pats’ backfield is officially thin. Jeremy Hill (ACL) is done for the season too, leaving only rookie Sony Michel and pass-catching back James White as the main RBs in the rotation. Through three games, Miami has allowed the eighth-most receptions to RBs (7.3 per game) while White has played on 48, 56, and 52 percent of New England’s snaps in Weeks 1-3. White has at least three catches in each game so far.
Wide Receiver
Start: John Brown (vs. Steelers)
Smokey is back! Through Weeks 1-3, Brown leads all receivers in targets that traveled over 20 yards in air (11) and he’s seen only three fewer targets (23) than Michael Crabtree (26). Now, John Brown gets to face a Steelers secondary that has allowed a Passer Rating of 112.7 on throws to receivers split out wide, the second-highest clip (per Next Gen Stats). Brown has finished as a top-36 (WR3 or better) fantasy receiver in each contest so far.
Tight End
Start: Vance McDonald (vs. Ravens)
After dealing with shoulder, ankle, knee, back and foot problems over the last two seasons, it’s nice to see Vance McDonald at 100 percent health. After whacking the Bucs for 4/112/1 (on five targets) on Week 3’s Monday Night Football, McDonald will be on everyone’s waiver radar for claims this week.
Since returning in Week 2, he has run more pass routes (59) than teammate Jesse James (49) over the last two games, per Pro Football Focus. After his monster 75-yard stiff-arming TD, McDonald is about to receive a ton of hype ahead of Pittsburgh’s Week 4 date against Baltimore. Over the last two years (including post-season), McDonald has averaged 1.95 receiving yards gained per route run – the sixth-best clip behind TE contemporaries Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Walker and Reed (per PFF). We have to chase McDonald’s upside when we see it.