Fantasy Focus: Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em – Week 9
Courtesy of NFL Fantasy, the Gridiron Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is your weekly guide to how real-life match-ups influence your fantasy football squads.
Players like Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and Rob Gronkowski will never be featured in this article because they should be in your lineup every week, regardless of matchup. Instead, we’ll touch on some borderline fantasy start-sit decisions in this column.
(All fantasy data is based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring)
Quarterback
Start: Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Panthers)
After Jameis Winston’s four interception, five sack meltdown in Cincinnati, the Bucs’ are moving forward with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 9 against Carolina. Purely statistically speaking, Fitzpatrick has undoubtedly been more efficient on the field than Winston this year. Whether that continues and is the final straw in Winston’s future beyond 2018 remains to be seen. We only care about Week 9 now, though. For fantasy, we have to re-insert Fitzpatrick as a low-end QB1 in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s high-flying attack. The ‘Tampa Bay QB’ is averaging 26.3 fantasy points per game, trailing only Patrick Mahomes for the top spot (27.1). This comes despite the fact that Winston and Fitzpatrick have combined to throw 15 interceptions, most in the NFL. The ‘Tampa Bay QB’, regardless of who is starting, has finished as fantasy’s QB1, QB6, QB4, QB23 (vs. Chicago), QB1, QB6, and QB1 in weekly output this year.
Running Back
Start: Latavius Murray (vs. Lions)
Murray has finished as a top-ten PPR running back in three-straight games and now faces a Detroit side that is dead last in both rushing yards allowed per game and yards per carry. In fact, the Lions have allowed a top-12 (RB1) back in three of their last four games. While DT Damon Harrison is a stud and racked up six stops and a sack in his debut in Week 8, the Lions have so many other problems along their defensive line as it is. Murray should feast as a home-favorite in Week 9.
Wide Receiver
Sit: Amari Cooper (vs. Titans)
Some fantasy managers may be excited about an old face in a new place, but I want no part of Cooper in Week 9. Dallas is the fifth-most run-heavy team in the league and third-from-last in pass attempts per game. Volume-wise, Cooper’s move to Dallas couldn’t be much worse for his outlook. While Dak Prescott has not had a receiver with Cooper’s theoretical talent, it’s not like he has elevated receivers consistently over the last three years. Since entering the league in 2016, Prescott’s receiver bunch has finished 17th, 21st, and they’re currently 25th in yearly fantasy output relative to the rest of the league. Hard pass on Cooper in Week 9.
Tight End
Start: Chris Herndon (vs. Dolphins)
If you need a streamer this week, fire up Herndon. He has a low floor … but so does everyone not named Kelce or Ertz at the position. Even though he’s only averaging 53 percent of team snaps, Herndon has scored in three-straight games and now leads all Jets receivers in passer rating when targeted by Sam Darnold (134.5; per Next Gen Stats). However, Herndon will still possess a dangerously low floor until his usage begins to tick up. Per PFF’s charts, Herndon has run a pass route on just 31 percent of Darnold’s dropbacks over the last three weeks. Still, tight end is a black hole in fantasy this year and anyone with a pulse is playable. The Dolphins allowed 5/56/2 to Lions TEs in Week 7 and were hit for 4/29/2 by Texans’ TE Jordan Thomas in Week 8.