
NFL WEEKEND PREVIEW: CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
And so, here we are. The penultimate weekend of NFL action hasn’t so much as crept up on us as arrived like a full-on Myles Garrett pass rush. Two games to decide this year’s Super Bowl combatants. Repeat or reprise? Too close to call?
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NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Washington Commanders (12-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The NFC Championship game will mark just the second postseason meeting between the Washington and Philadelphia franchises, and you have to go back to 1990 for the first, with the then-Redskins running out 20-6 winners over the Eagles. This is the fifth time since 2002 that a conference championship will be fought out between divisional rivals and, if history is any judge, this is good news for both teams, but especially the Eagles. All four winners of these rivalry games went on to subsequently win the Super Bowl, with the division winners going 3-1 in the conference title game.
This is Washington’s first appearance in a title game since the 1991 season, a year that saw them lift their third Vince Lombardi Trophy. Head coach Dan Quinn has led a remarkable turnaround in his first season in charge, taking a 4-13 side to the title game with two impressive road wins in the playoffs. The Commanders come into the game after a 45-31 beatdown of the NFC’s top-seeded Detroit Lions in which rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continued his remarkable first season in the NFL.
Daniels racked up 299 passing yards while tossing two touchdown passes, the fourth most passing yards by a rookie in a playoff game in NFL history. Daniels has worked wonders with a less than stellar cast of receiving talent, with standout Terry McLaurin looking rejuvenated this season. Daniels has also made good use of veteran Zach Ertz in scoring situations, with the tight end scoring seven touchdowns in the regular season and another against the Lions. Daniels has good recent memories of playing the Eagles after a nailbiting win back in Week 16 in which he tossed a career-high five touchdown passes, including one in the final seconds. But the rookie had Sam Cosmi in the lineup back then, and that won’t be the case this time around after the guard suffered an ACL injury against the Lions and is done for the season.
Quinn’s influence on his side has also spread to the defense which, while not among the league’s best, has certainly shown itself to be opportunistic in the playoffs. They’ve generated six turnovers in their last two games, including five against the Lions.
The Eagles are back in the title game for the second time in three seasons and the eighth time this century. They have won their last two conference title games, with the last one coming in 2022 when they beat the quarterback-impaired San Francisco 49ers 31-7, but had to win a gut-clencher in the divisional round to get back here again, outlasting the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 at a snowy Lincoln Financial Field, thanks in no small part to All-Pro Jalen Carter’s performance on the Rams’ last possession.
As has been the case for much of the season, the Eagles’ success offensively came thanks to their ground game. The Birds rushed for 285 yards against the Rams, with Saquon Barkley racking up 205 of those on 26 attempts, scoring touchdowns of 62 and 78 yards in the process. Jalen Hurts was not at his best, amassing just 128 yards on 15 completions, but he too added 70 yards on the ground, including a 44-yard score. Hurts did sustain an injury late in the first half of the game however, and his health and availability remain genuine causes for concern approaching the weekend. It’s been a quiet postseason for the Eagles pass catchers, with A.J. Brown reeling in a mere three of ten targets for 24 yards through two games. Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith lead the team with eight receptions each, Goedert for 103 yards and a touchdown and Smith for 76 without a score.
Defensively, the playoff Eagles have resembled the great ‘Bend, Don’t Break’ units led by Jim Johnson in the early 2000s. They’ve allowed an average of 357 yards per game over their last two, but only allowed 50 points, while taking the ball away six times. Former Georgia Bulldogs Carter and Nolan Smith have combined for 5.0 sacks, five tackles for loss and two forced fumbles, and the Cosmi-less Washington offensive line will need to have a plan to stop them from taking over the game.
PREDICTION: It’s been an incredible ride, but the Eagles prevent Jayden Daniels becoming the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl.
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AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Buffalo Bills (13-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs lock horns in the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five seasons, this time with a place in the Super Bowl up for grabs. The Chiefs are, of course, two-time defending champions and are looking to make their fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six seasons. This is their seventh conference championship appearance in a row and is one less than the longest consecutive streak, held by the New England Patriots. They appeared in eight straight AFC title games between 2011-18. A win for the Chiefs would also make them the first non-AFC East team to appear in three consecutive Super Bowls, with the Patriots (2016-18), Miami Dolphins (1971-73) and the Bills (1990-93) occupying the list. Sean McDermott is going up against his old boss Andy Reid, having spent 12 seasons as a member of Reid’s coaching staff in Philadelphia, including two seasons as defensive coordinator, and will hope to repeat the 30-21 Bills victory from mid-November, even if the venue is different.
The Bills made it to the title game with a win over the Baltimore Ravens by the barest of margins, after Ravens tight end Mark Andrews dropped a two-point conversion that would have tied the game with just over 90 seconds remaining. The Bills have leant on their ground game so far this post season, with 80 rushing attempts gaining 357 yards. But potential MVP Josh Allen hasn’t been nullified entirely, with 399 passing yards and two touchdown passes in addition to 66 yards on the ground and another two scores. Khalil Shakir is the only Bills pass catcher with more than four receptions over the last two games, while running back James Cook has 40 of the Bills 80 postseason rush attempts, earning 187 yards. Crucially, the Bills have not committed an offensive turnover in any of their last four games, and only one in their last seven, while forcing three of their own against the Ravens. Greg Rousseau has been a big-time performer in the playoffs with three tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks, and the Chiefs will need to have a plan for #50 when they have the ball.
The Chiefs ground out a 23-14 victory over the Houston Texans in the divisional round despite the visitors outgaining them by more than 100 yards (212-336). Patrick Mahomes earned the 16th postseason victory of his career despite only targeting one wide receiver in the win (echoes of the famous Chiefs season without a single touchdown reception by a tight end back in 2015?). Travis Kelce continued his long tradition of stepping up in the postseason with seven receptions for 117 yards and the Chiefs only passing score of the game. Kelce has more 100-yard receiving games in the postseason than any other player in history and is only two touchdowns behind Jerry Rice’s record of 22. The Chiefs led the NFL with 3:08 minutes per drive in the regular season and slowing the game down and dragging their opponents into a dogfight has been a winning strategy. Whether they can do it against a team as gritty as the Bills is another matter.
George Karlaftis led the Chiefs with eight sacks in the regular season and he was a monster against the Texans, stacking up four quarterback hits and three sacks while also recording three tackles for loss. The Bills simply cannot allow the former Boilermaker to wreck the game when they are on offense.
PREDICTION: The quest for the Three-Peat ends, and the Bills finally get a chance to get Josh Allen a ring.
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So there you have it. Eagles against Bills for the 59th Lombardi Trophy. Saquon against Josh for all the marbles. You read it here first.