Thursday, January 16th, 2025

NFL WEEKEND PREVIEW: DIVISIONAL ROUND

Neil Dutton

NFL WEEKEND PREVIEW: DIVISIONAL ROUND

Neil Dutton NFL

While there was just one Wild Card game that went the distance with its result in the balance — thank you Commanders and Buccaneers — the outcomes of the opening round of the NFL playoffs have combined to produce some intriguing matchups amongst the final eight teams. Detroit and Kansas City enter the postseason fray this weekend, but neither will take their opponents lightly, while the other two games could also go either way as league heavyweights clash in both conferences.

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GAME OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) @ Buffalo Bills (13-4)

In a head-to-head worthy of a Super Bowl (ah, if only), the Bills welcome the Ravens to Highmark Stadium with a place in the AFC Championship up for grabs. This is a matchup between two former Andy Reid assistants, with John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott both serving on Big Red’s Philadelphia Eagles staff between 2001-2007. The Bills emerged from an early 7-0 hole against the Denver Broncos a week ago to win 31-7, while the Ravens were comfortable 28-14 winners in their third clash of the season with the Pittsburgh Steelers. On paper at least, this promises to be a high-scoring affair, with both sides averaging more than 30 points per game in the regular season, the fifth time two such sides have faced off in the postseason since 1950.

Both sides owe their success to the play of their marquee quarterbacks, with Lamar Jackson named First Team All-Pro and Josh Allen earning Second Team honours, and have already met this season, with the Ravens running out 35-10 winners back in Week 4. Jackson, who took great strides as a passer in 2024 with 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns, remains a dynamic weapon as a runner and averages 86 rushing yards in playoff games in his career, while his backfield mate, Derrick Henry, kept his regular season form going in the Wild Card win over the Steelers, rushing for 186 yards and two touchdowns in his fourth career playoff game with at least 150 rushing yards.

Allen has driven his side to an unbeaten home record in 2024, going 8-0 in the regular season before beating the Broncos in the Wild Card round. Allen has a 6-2 record in home playoff games in his career and, like Jackson, has not been afraid to run the ball in postseason play. In fact, Allen has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in in NFL playoff history, having moved seven ahead of his rival at the weekend. But Allen, like Jackson, is not the only threat on the ground in his offense. Running back James Cook rushed for 1,009 yards in the regular season and added another 120 against the Broncos. The Bills lack a truly elite pass-catching weapon, but Allen has his pick of role players to call upon should he need them. Khalil Shakir led the Bills in receptions in the regular season as well as in the Wild Card round, while tight end Dawson Knox ranks fifth all-time among tight ends with six postseason touchdown receptions. The Bills defence, like the Ravens, allowed just over 21 points per game in 2024 and saw valuable contributions from a host of players.

PREDICTION: In a game with all the hallmarks of being an absolute classic, the Ravens have just enough firepower to outlast the Bills and advance to the AFC title game for the second year in a row.

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WORTH A WATCH

With an entire season on the line, every playoff game — from Wild Card to Super Bowl — becomes ‘must watch’.

Washington Commanders (12-5) @ Detroit Lions (15-2)

The NFC top seed Lions welcome Washington to Ford Field in the fourth playoff meeting between these two sides, but the first since 1999. The Commanders (or Redskins as they were then known) won the previous three clashes, albeit at home for each of those encounters, and another victory would see the franchise return to the NFC championship game for the first time since 1991, where they beat… the Lions. This is the only game this weekend that is not a rematch of a game from the 2024 regular season, with the last meeting between these two sides coming in the 2022 campaign, when Detroit edged a high-scoring affair 36-27.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was excellent in Washington’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round, passing for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another 36 on the ground as he became fourth first-year passer to win their first road playoff game. Daniels’ favourite target, as in the regular season, was Terry McLaurin, who chipped in with 89 yards and a crucial score against the Bucs. On the other side of the ball, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn, in his first year on the job, has been able to coax efficient production out of a defensive unit consisting mainly of savvy veterans. Dante Fowler, who played under Quinn in Dallas, posted 10.5 sacks as well as 14 tackles for loss across the season, while another free agent signing, former Panther Frankie Luvu, marked his first year with the Commanders by recording 99 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and 8.0 sacks, while also breaking up seven passes.

The Lions, despite a staggering number of injuries to key defensive players, were a juggernaut throughout the regular season, scoring 564 points (33.2 per game) on their way to a 15-2 record. QB Jared Goff racked up 4,629 passing yards, his fifth career-season with 4,000+ yards and third in a row with the Lions, while tossing a career-high 37 touchdown passes. Goff’s playoff form with the Lions is a stark contrast to the player who turned out for the Rams earlier in his career. In five postseason games with the Rams, Goff completed 57.4% of his passes while averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns and two interceptions. In three playoff games with Detroit last year, Goff completed 69.4% of his passes for 837 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns without a single pick. This season also saw three Lions players record at least 12 touchdowns from scrimmage, only the fourth team to achieve this feat in NFL history, and look set to welcome back RB David Montgomery from injury to reform his ‘Sonic and Knuckles’ backfield partnership with Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery rushed for 775 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2024, while Gibbs racked up 1,412 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground, adding another 517 yards and four scores through the air. Goff was able to count on a pair of 1,000-yard receivers too, with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching 115 balls for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns and Jameson Williams delivering a 58-1001-7 line of his own. The emergence of Williams helped offset a drop in the production of tight end Sam LaPorta, who went from 86 catches for 889 yards (10 touchdowns) as a newcomer to 60-726-7 in 2024. The Lions were absolutely decimated by injuries on defense, but still only allowed just over 20 points per game. Safety Brian Branch is the heartbeat of Aaron Glenn’s defense, with 109 tackles and a team high 16 pass breakups in 2024, but don’t dismiss the impact Alex Anzalone’s return at linebacker will have on the team.

PREDICTION: They may be down on players, but the Lions are not down on playmakers and, as Jayden Daniels fairytale ends, Detroit’s magic carpet ride continues.

Houston Texans (10-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

The defending Super Bowl champions and AFC #1 seed Chiefs return from rest to face the Texans at Arrowhead Stadium as they look to make their seventh consecutive AFC title game. At the opposite end of the spectrum, and deservingly overshadowed by the Chiefs’ achievement, a win for the Texans would be enough to secure a first appearance in the title game for the franchise. This will be the third postseason meeting between these two sides, with the Chiefs owning a 2-0 advantage including a 51-31 victory in the 2019 Divisional round.

The Texans won a strange Wild Card clash with the Los Angeles Chargers last week, giving DeMeco Ryans a playoff victory in each of his first two seasons at the helm. C.J. Stroud passed for 282 yards and a touchdown against an L.A. team with a better record, the most he’s amassed in a single game since Week 8, and averages 243.7 passing yards per game in his three postseason appearances. Notably, however, he managed a tick more than that when these two sides met in Week 16. Stroud’s favourite target, Nico Collins, was quiet in the final few weeks of the regular season, posting 60 yards or less in each of his last four games, but came to play last week, catching seven of his eight targets for 122 yards. Running back Joe Mixon notched 1,016 rushing yards in his first season with the Texans and was a rock against the Chargers, rushing for over 100 yards while also finding the endzone. The Texans highly-rated defense then made Chargers QB Justin Herbert’s life an absolute misery, sacking him four times and picking off a similar number of passes as they felt the force of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, who both notched double-digit sacks and combined for 33 tackles for loss in the regular season.

You’d be hard pressed to find a more battle-hardened unit than the Chiefs though. QB Patrick Mahomes has 5,135 passing yards and 41 touchdowns in the playoffs, while tight end and favourite Mahomes target Travis Kelce has more playoff receptions than anyone else in NFL history, as well as ranking second in both yards and touchdowns. Andy Reid has won 26 playoff games as a head coach, the second most all-time, while the defense, led by Chris Jones, allowed fewer than 20 points per game in the regular season. The squad should be well rested after securing the precious bye week and, frankly, are built for these types of situations.

PREDICTION: The Texans have their work cut out for them as the Mahomes/Reid axis rolls on to yet another title game appearance.

Los Angeles Rams (10-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Los Angeles Rams, buoyed by an emotional ‘home’ victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Arizona on Wild Card weekend, travel east to face a Philadelphia Eagles team coming off a second win of the season over the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles are looking to secure a second NFC title game berth in three seasons, while the Rams are looking to go to their third championship game in eight seasons under head coach Sean McVay. Historically, the Eagles have enjoyed their clashes with McVay, with the Rams coach enduring a 1-4 record against the Birds but, ahead of the fourth postseason clash between the two franchises, it is the Rams that hold that particular upper hand, with the Eagles only playoff win coming way back in the 1949 NFL championship game.

The Rams scored 27 points against the Vikings, but it was their defense that stole the show, sacking Sam Darnold nine times and tying an NFL playoff record. Rams QB Matt Stafford has thrown at least two touchdown passes in his last six playoff games and has 13 touchdowns and zero picks in his last five games against the Eagles. WR Cooper Kupp averages close to 100 receiving yards per game against the Eagles in his career, but hasn’t looked like his old self lately, and only hauled in a single pass against the Vikings as Stafford leaned on his tight ends and Puka Nacua in the passing game. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have one of the best pairs of rookie defenders with Jared Verse and Braden Fiske — who combined for 16.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss in the regular season — highlighting a stellar draft for McVay and his front office. Fiske also scored on a 57-yard fumble recovery against the Vikings.

It wasn’t pretty on offense against the Packers, but the Eagles were able to lean on Saquon Barkley when it mattered to close the game out. Barkley rushed for 119 yards and has good recent memories of playing against the Rams, having put up 302 yards from scrimmage — including an Eagles franchise record 255 rushing yards — in the Week 12 clash between the two sides. QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles passing attack didn’t enjoy a great outing on Wild Card weekend, but were able to make just enough plays to keep the game in hand. Vic Fangio’s defense did most of the heavy lifting, intercepting Jordan Love and sacking him twice without allowing a touchdown pass. On defense, the Eagles have two outstanding rookies of their own in CB Quinyon Mitchell and safety Cooper DeJean, but will be without linebacker Nakobe Dean for the remainder of the season after he suffered a knee injury against the Packers. His replacements, whoever they end up being, will likely be tested and targeted ruthlessly by the Rams, with McVay capable of throwing any number of confusing plays through the middle of the field.

PREDICTION: Despite the best efforts of Stafford and Co, expect another Saquon Barkley day as the running back puts the Eagles on his shoulders and carries them into the NFC title game.

WHO YOU GOT?

Well, we’ve put our necks on the line, but what do you think? Eagles at a (tush) push? Chiefs complete the...