Thursday, November 7th, 2024

NFL Weekend Preview: Week 10

Craig Llewellyn

Editor

NFL Weekend Preview: Week 10

Craig Llewellyn NFL

With nine of 18 weeks — and 138 of 272 games completed — the 2024 NFL regular season has edged past its halfway point with the Kansas City Chiefs still clinging the league’s last unbeaten record, having moved to 8-0 with a hard-fought overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. With the win, the Chiefs became only the sixth reigning Super Bowl champion to win each of their first eight games the following season, joining the 2015 and 2019 New England Patriots, 2011 Green Bay Packers, 1998 Denver Broncos and 1990 San Francisco 49ers.

Kansas City may have dodged a bullet too, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes seemed to have picked up a serious ankle injury during the fourth quarter but, as usual, insisted on playing on and saw the contest through to its extra time conclusion. Post-match investigations suggest that the injury may not be as bad as first feared and, with head coach Andy Reid insisting that Mahomes knows how to manage the setback, the quarterback should be under center once more as the Chiefs take on Denver in an AFC West clash this Sunday. Mahomes boasts a .865 winning percentage (32-5) in 37 career starts against the rest of K.C.’s division, trailing only Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning [.875 against the AFC North] for the highest winning percentage by a quarterback against a division since 1970.

Mahomes favourite target, tight end Travis Kelce, snared a regular-season career-high 14 receptions in Week 9 and, with 10 receptions in Week 8, has recorded double figure receptions in consecutive games for the third time in his career. In terms of the regular season, Kelce now has 959 career receptions and surpassed Antonio Gates’ 955 for the third-most regular-season receptions by a tight end in NFL history. Kelce enters Week 10 with 11,763 regular-season receiving yards and can surpass Gates’ 11,841 in the stat for the third-most regular-season receiving yards by a tight end all-time. Mahomes, however, may have something to say about that, having quickly established a rapport with trade signing DeAndre Hopkins against Tampa, leading to the wideout getting his first scores as a Chief.

The Broncos, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back from a heavy defeat to the in-form Baltimore Ravens last weekend — and would like nothing more than to halt Kansas City’s unbeaten streak before it threatens the 13-0 start posted by the 1998 Broncos. Like Baltimore, Denver is one of a handful of teams to have started 0-2 this season before posting a winning record (5-2) over the past seven weeks. Despite the game in Baltimore getting away from them in the second half, rookie QB Bo Nix had opportunities early on to keep his team team in the contest, and will look to make them count this time around.

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As for Baltimore, quarterback Lamar Jackson leads the NFL with a 120.7 passer rating this season, and has the chance to post only the fourth instance of a passer finishing the regular season with a rating of 120-or-higher, joining Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2020) and Manning (2004). Running back Derrick Henry, meanwhile, leads all players with 1,052 rushing yards in nine games and is on pace for 1,987 rushing yards over the course of a 17-game season. Since 2000, Henry is one of four players to reach 2,000 rushing yards in a season, along with Adrian Peterson (2012), Jamal Lewis (2003) and Chris Johnson (2009), and can become the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 2,000-or-more rushing yards if he continues at slightly above his current clip.

The Ravens face AFC North rival Cincinnati in the first of the week’s matchups on Thursday Night Football, the return fixture in the double-header that saw Baltimore win 41-38 in overtime in Week 5, in what is the highest scoring game of 2024 so far. Baltimore enters Week 10 on a three-game home winning streak, while Cincinnati has won each of its past three road contests. Jackson is riding high, having totalled 403 total yards (348 passing/55 rushing) and four touchdown passes in that Week 5 contest and is coming off his fourth career game with a 158.3 passer rating — the highest attainable mark — in Week 9, the most such games by a player in NFL history. Jackson has 20 touchdown passes and just two interceptions this season and became the fifth player in NFL history with at least 20 touchdown passes and two-or-fewer interceptions in his first nine games of a season, joining Tom Brady (2016), Drew Brees (2018), Patrick Mahomes (2020) and Russell Wilson (2019). With two rushing touchdowns in Week 9, meanwhile, Henry became the fifth player in NFL history with at least 100 rushing touchdowns in his first nine seasons, joining Hall of Famers LaDainian Tomlinson (138), Emmitt Smith (125) and Jim Brown (106), as well as Shaun Alexander (100).

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is also in good form, passing for 392 yards and five touchdowns against Baltimore in Week 5 and five more last week to see off the Las Vegas Raiders, becoming the first player since Tom Brady in 2021 to throw for five touchdowns twice in a five-game span. Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who had 10 receptions for 193 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 against the Ravens, leads the NFL in touchdown receptions (seven), ranks second in receiving yards (717) and tied for third in receptions (55) this season. Chase has six touchdown receptions in eight career games against Baltimore, including the postseason.

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The 2024 NFL season is proving to be the most competitive NFL campaign to date, with 75 games being decided by seven points or fewer, and 65 by six points or less, both numbers the most through Week 9 in NFL history. The Indianapolis Colts are the fourth team all-time to have each of their first nine games of a season decided by one score, joining their 2019 counterparts, as well as the 2016 Detroit Lions and 2015 Ravens.

Like Baltimore and Denver, the Colts began the year with two defeats, but have gone 4-3 since then, and now have veteran Joe Flacco installed as QB. Flacco might have his work cut out this weekend, however, as Indy welcomes the Buffalo Bills to Lucas Oil Stadium, the AFC East leader having moved to 7-2 on the season after seeing off a surprisingly feisty Miami team last Sunday, while the Colts slipped up against the Minnesota Vikings, who are one of six teams to have missed the 2023 postseason but begun 2024 with a winning record through nine weeks. Indy will hope that the Vikings can do them a favour by beating up on another AFC South opponent this Sunday, as Sam Darnold and Co visit Jacksonville aiming to heap more misery on an inconsistent Jaguars season. Despite the heroics and physical feats happening amongst the opposition, Jacksonville came close to upsetting the Phildelphia Eagles in Week 9, and could have won the game had Trevor Lawrence not been picked off by Nakobe Dean on what would have been the final drive of the game.

While they do not top the NFC East right now, the Eagles are right in contention for the crown and will look to emerge with both another win and the scalp of division rival Dallas when the two sides meet in primetime this Sunday. Although both sides have injury problems, the Cowboys looked to be a shadow of their former selves even before both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb got banged up in the defeat to Atlanta last time out, and Philly will fancy their chances of leaving AT&T Stadium with a welcome W.

With their run defense already showing more holes than Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, the Cowboys will not be looking forward to facing Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley, who leads the league with 133.9 scrimmage yards per game (1,071 scrimmage yards in eight games) and is on pace for 2,276 scrimmage yards in a 17-game season. In the past 15 seasons (2009-23), only six players have registered 2,200-or-more scrimmage yards: Chris Johnson (2009), Christian McCaffrey (2019), Adrian Peterson (2012), DeMarco Murray (2014), Arian Foster (2010) and Le’Veon Bell (2014).

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The team currently occupying top spot in the NFC East is, of course, the resurgent Washington Commanders, another club to have missed last year’s playoffs but currently riding a 7-2 record for all it’s worth. The burgundy-and-gold might find they have their work cut out for them this weekend, as they host a Pittsburgh Steelers side coming off their bye having quietly compiled a 6-2 mark. Both teams enter Week 10 on a three-game winning streak, but built on entirely different strengths. Pittsburgh has the second-ranked scoring defense this season (14.9 points per game allowed) and has held their opponents to 20 points-or-fewer in seven of eight games, while Washington ranks third in scoring offense (29.2 points per game) and is currently 4-0 at home.

Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson is 2-0 with four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing), no interceptions and a 111.9 rating in his two two starts this season. The former Seahawk and Bronco QB has a touchdown pass in 21 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL, and will look to find a way through a Commanders secondary bolstered by the acquisition of former Saints CB Marshon Lattimore at Tuesday’s trade deadline. Pittsburgh’s defensive effort is led by linebacker T.J. Watt, who added two further sacks to his 04 tally in Week 8, and now has 103 since entering the NFL in 2017, joining some pretty illustrious company with the fourth-most sacks by a player in his first eight seasons since 1982, when the individual sack became an official statistic. Watt trails only Pro Football Hall of Famers Reggie White (124 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (111), as well as Jared Allen (105).

Washington, meanwhile, has won in seven of quarterback Jayden Daniels’ first nine starts and, with another win this weekend, the rookie can join Ben Roethlisberger (10 wins) and Prescott (nine) as the only rookie quarterbacks ever to win at least eight of their first 10 career starts. Daniels is 4-0 at home and can become the fourth rookie quarterback since 1950 to win each of his first five career home starts, joining Chris Chandler (1988), Roethlisberger (2004) and Wilson (2012). Commanders running back Austin Ekeler, meanwhile, has amassed 8,769 career scrimmage yards and can surpass Arian Foster (8,873) for the second-most by an undrafted running back since 1967, trailing only Priest Holmes (11,134).

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Like Washington, the Arizona Cardinals currently lead their respective division halfway through the season after finishing in last place in 2023, and both teams have a chance to go ‘worst-to-first’ in 2024. Amazingly, in 19 of the past 21 seasons (2003-23), at least one team has finished won their division after finishing in last or tied for last the previous year, while at least two teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs in 20 of the past 21 years.

Arizona has also started the season with a winning record through Week 9 having missed the postseason in 2023, and could help extend a streak of 34 consecutive seasons, since 1990, where at least four teams every season have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make them the year before. The Cardinals’ case could be improved by the fact that they host the New York Jets this weekend, but head coach Jonathan Gannon won’t be short of people warning him to remember Gang Green’s upset win over the Houston Texans in Week 9’s Thursday night offering.

Houston, meanwhile, finds itself facing a supposedly tougher task this weekend, as the 7-1 Detroit Lions come to H-Town looking to further bolster their position atop the NFC North after beating Green Bay at Lambeau Field last time out. The Lions possess the league’s top scoring offense this season (32.3 points per game) and have won six straight, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. The Texans are 4-0 at home in 2024, however, and have allowed the second-fewest yards per game (281.7) — their current six-game home winning streak, including the postseason, has seen Houston allow 20-or-fewer opponent points in each win.

Detroit quarterback Jared Goff is riding an 82.8 completion percentage and 140.1 passer rating through his past six games, surpassing Peyton Manning for the highest completion percentage in a six-game span within a season, and Brock Purdy (138.1) for the highest passer rating over the same spell. As always, the supprting cast will be vital for both QBs in this game, with Goff looking to running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to maintain their ‘Sonic and Knuckles’ partnership and receivers Amon-Ra St.Brown and Sam LaPorta to stretch the field, while Houston running back Joe Mixon — who rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 to become the fifth player in NFL history with at least 100 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in five of his first six games of a season — will act as security for second-year passer C.J. Stroud as he looks to get his team out of the doldrums.

The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, have quietly allowed the fewest points per game (12.6) this season, becoming the sixth team since 1990 to allow 20-or-fewer points in each of its first eight games of a season. Since 2000, six teams have allowed 13-or-fewer points in a season: the 2000 and 2006 Baltimore Ravens (10.3/12.6 respectively), 2000 Tennessee Titans (11.9), 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.3), and 2001 and 2005 Chicago Bears (12.7/12.6). Jim Harbaugh’s side welcomes this year’s Titans to SoFi Stadium this weekend and will look to improve on their current 5-3 record against a team that, despite shipping talent at the trade deadline, gained a second win of the season in a nail-biter against New England last Sunday.

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The Patriots travel to Chicago for another clash of first round quarterbacks as Drake Maye looks to bounce back from his game-sealing interception in Nashville against first overall selection Caleb Williams and the Bears now at .500.

Also with an even record, the San Francisco 49ers have to travel to Tampa for a matchup of two teams nursing offensive injury decimation. Christian McCaffrey may (emphasise may) be ready to make his first appearance of the season for San Fran, but the team was still being cautious about his fitness. Interestingly, the 49ers did tab former Buccaneer WR Russell Gage during the week with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings all potentially sidelined, while Baker Mayfield and Co will look to halt a three-game skid without receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Analysts are also praying for Bucs tackle Luke Goedeke as he prepares to face ‘feral’ 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa.

Atlanta, coming off an emphatic win over Dallas, are rewarded with a trip to NOLA to face a Saints team with interim head coach Darren Rizzi taking charge for the first time following Dennis Allen’s sacking, brought about — according to sources — by more than just defeat by the hapless Carolina Panthers last weekend. Derek Carr may be back under center for New Orleans, but the loss of WR Chris Olave to a second concussion of the season will do little to spark an offense where even RB Alvin Kamara has gone quiet. On the opposite side, meanwhile, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins continues to look more at home in his new offense, although injury concerns over both Drake London and Kyle Pitts may blunt his arsenal somewhat.

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Finally, although not on the schedule, where they kick off Sunday’s programme at 9.30am ET, the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers, who share identical 2-7 records, bring the curtain down on this year’s International Series when they meet at Allianz Arena in Munich. The Giants are 3-0 in previous international regular season games, with each win occurring in a different London venue (Wembley, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Twickenham), and are one of only four teams with a perfect overseas record through multiple games, alongside Minnesota (4-0), Kansas City (3-0) and Philadelphia (2-0).

Week 10 will mark only the Panthers second international game, but they too have an unblemished record having defeated Tampa Bay at Tottenham in 2019. While not necessarily the most exciting matchup on paper due to their records, the teams could yet surprise what is expected to be another sellout international crowd with rookie receivers Malik Nabers and Xavier Legette to the fore. Giants newcomer Nabers has 55 receptions in seven career games and can surpass last year’s rookie standout Puka Nacua’s record of 61 receptions — as well as former Giant Saquon Barkley’s 58 — for the most receptions by a player in his first eight career games.

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