Saturday, September 8th, 2018

Pick Six: Week 1

Paolo Bandini

Pick Six: Week 1

Paolo Bandini NFL 13 Comments

Well now, this is different. After a year away, my Pick Six contest has found a new home here at Gridiron. Whether you played along before at The Guardian, or have just stumbled across this for the first time, the important thing is that you’re here.

I think.

It might be that you click all the advertising links and sign up for a lifetime subscription to the magazine. I’ll check with the new boss and get back to you.

The important thing for now is to explain the rules of the game. Each week, I will nominate six of the toughest games to call from the forthcoming NFL weekend (NB: these will not always be the games involving the best teams) and make my predictions for them. You are invited to do the same in the comments section below. You can show us your working, as I have, or just name the teams if you’d prefer.

At the end of each round, we will tally up the scores, before posting the overall standings in next week’s blog. If you’re lucky, we might even have a prize in store for our end-of-season champion. Perhaps even a little something for any of you who are sharp enough to call all six games correctly in a given week as well. Be advised: it’s a little trickier than it sounds …

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts

By the time this game kicks off, it will be 616 days since Andrew Luck last played in a regular season NFL game. Can he still produce to the same level? The preseason signs were encouraging, as was Indianapolis’ willingness to finally invest in their offensive line. The sixth overall draft pick is lot to pay for a guard but, if Quenton Nelson is as good as the Colts believe he is, then Luck will thank his front office for doing so.

With Matt Slauson signed to fill the second guard spot, the interior blocking ought to be better. Questions remain outside, however, with left tackle Anthony Castonzo only practicing for the first time in five weeks on Wednesday and serious concerns about the right tackle spot after Indy rattled through four different starters in as many preseason games.

All this will encourage the Bengals, who know how to get after the quarterback with Geno Atkins (nine sacks last season), Carlos Dunlap (seven) and Carl Lawson (eight-and-a-half – most among rookies in 2017). So too might an inexperienced Indianapolis defence, and the stat which shows that the Colts have lost seven of their past eight season-openers. But I’m still taking Luck to remind us quite how good he’s always been.

Colts win

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants

The Ben McAdoo era is over, giving way to a great deal of optimism in New York. The Giants’ roster has been transformed, with only 22 players held over from the team that went 3-13 last season, yet it is the return to fitness of Odell Beckham Jr, paired with the drafting of Saquon Barkley at running back, that is driving enthusiasm among fans.

A win over last year’s AFC runners-up would certainly make a statement for new head coach Pat Shurmur. Perhaps I am reading too much into nothing, but I find it encouraging that Beckham declined the invitation to trade barbs with Jalen Ramsey. Barkley may find space, too, against a Jacksonville defence that was not as good as some might imagine on the ground, giving up 116.2 yards per game: 21st in the league last season.

The Jags will feel confident in their own ability to run the ball with Leonard Fournette – and especially if Olivier Vernon is missing for the Giants. But if New York can get on top early (a significant ask, I’ll grant), then I suspect this might be one of those days when we are reminded of Blake Bortles’ limitations, especially with so many familiar receivers departed or injured.

Giants win

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

What to expect from the 2018 Titans? There has been an assumption with Mike Vrabel that he will ask his team to play as he once did: with a hard-nosed, old school, physical approach, yet he has publicly encouraged Marcus Mariota to take his shots with the deep ball.

Tennessee certainly have the tools to be effective in the running game, with Dion Lewis joining Derrick Henry in backfield rotation. Miami had a middle-of-the-pack run defence last season but look a lot softer in the middle with Ndamukong Suh departing, even if Robert Quinn’s arrival does make them faster off the edge.

On the other side of the ball, a healthy Ryan Tannehill drastically upgrades the Dolphins’ prospects, but who does he plan on throwing to, with Jarvis Landry gone and Devante Parker injured? Can Kenny Stillls, Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson really make inroads against a secondary that already had a lot going for it before the addition of Malcolm Butler?

Titans win

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos

Earl Thomas ended his holdout and returned to practice on Wednesday, but what else remains of the Seattle team that was supposed to become a dynasty? The Legion of Boom has been dismantled, with Richard Sherman in San Francisco and Kam Chancellor retired. Michael Bennett was traded to the Eagles and the injured Cliff Avril cut. Only six players remain from the group that won Super Bowl XLVIII.

One of those is Russell Wilson, and he alone gives his team a chance of success at Mile High Stadium. Denver are relieved to finally have an NFL-viable quarterback on board in Case Keenum but, as impressive as he was in 2017, he does not belong to the same category as Seattle’s No 7.

What Keenum does have going for him is a far more impressive arsenal of weapons, with rookie receiver Courtland Sutton showing well in preseason and ready to take on a role alongside Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. By contrast, Seattle have bid farewell to Jimmy Graham and recently heard Doug Baldwin confess that he does not expect his ailing knee to be 100% all season.

Broncos win

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Each of these teams has been hit by offensive line injuries. The Panthers put starting left tackle Matt Kalil on injured reserve this week after he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery, while right tackle Daryl Williams is only just back practicing with the team after suffering a torn MCL and dislocated patella at the start of training camp. Left guard Amini Silatolu is coming back from an offseason knee injury, too.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, have no timetable for the return of All-Pro centre Travis Frederick, after he was diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome. Both starting tackles – La’el Collins and Tyron Smith – have been hampered by minor injuries and guard Zack Martin is barely back from the hyper-extended knee he suffered in week two of preseason.

If each team is ailing, my hunch is that this scenario still hurts Dallas more. Theirs is a team whose identity is built around their ability to dominate up front. If they can’t get Zeke Elliott going against a Panthers defense that ranked third against the run last year, this could be a long day indeed.

Panthers win

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals

Arizona have been widely predicted to finish last in the NFC West, and there are good reasons to believe that they might. Bruce Arians did a superlative job to steer them to 8-8, but both he and starting quarterback Carson Palmer have now retired, while the defence lost a couple of key pieces as Tyrann Mathieu and Xavier Williams signed elsewhere.

Have we forgotten, though, that the group who somehow found a way to .500 was missing one of the league’s best backs in David Johnson, and played its last nine games with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton behind centre? Sure, Sam Bradford has trouble staying healthy but, when he was on the field for Minnesota these past two seasons, he threw for 23 touchdowns against five interceptions in 17 games – completing almost 72% of his passes.

Washington are presumed to be improved, yet they will be starting a Cardinals cast-off – the now 33-year-old Adrian Peterson – at running back, while Alex Smith feels like a sideways move, rather than an upgrade, on Kirk Cousins. They do have superior lines on both sides of the ball, a fact which I would typically place great stock in, but I have a hunch they’re going to get caught cold here. Jay Gruden, by the way, is 0-4 in season openers.

Cardinals win

Agree with my assessments? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

Comments 13

  1. No idea what happened here Paolo. It looks like my comment on Saturday wasn’t saved 🙁

    If you’re feeling generous my picks were

    Colts
    Jags
    Titans
    Broncos
    Panthers
    Washington

    …and welcome back to Pick Six!

  2. No science, just gut feeling…

    Bengals
    Jags
    Titans
    Broncos
    Panthers (sadly!)
    Cards

    …anyone who has seen my performance in weekly Picks Challenge knows how MOR this selection will probably be!

  3. Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Carolina, Arizona. My picks are not a result of long, in depth analysis, DVOA, or consuming what the expect analyst believes but the result of a coin flip. Just like anyone else I have a 50% chance of winning just like anyone else. #TakeThat

  4. Cincinnati have looked impressive in preseason, Indianapolis haven’t. The Jacksonville defense will be too much for New York. Tennessee’s running game will dominate Miami. Home advantage will win it for Denver. Carolina is healthier (just) than Dallas. Washington is too old and too slow, Arizona to win.

  5. Bengals
    Jaguars
    Dolphins
    Seahawks
    Panthers
    Cardinals

    Tough games to call although, unfortunately, I can’t see a Giants win!

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