Analysing football is a tricky thing. To differentiate yourself from the ‘hot take artists’, you feel you have to crunch the tape and study the numbers. But sometimes, it just feels that overarching narratives are inescapable.

The Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears’ recent histories have been littered with back-breaking loss after back-breaking loss. As the youngest franchise in the NFL, you never feel the Houston Texans have quite built up the knowhow to thrive in the biggest moments.

This divisional round slate offered a genuine opportunity for franchises to change our perception, to break through. Instead, we have a final four filled with ball clubs that have tasted recent, and medium-term, success; teams that are accustomed to winning. For those sides to keep tasting success, their opponents simply have to keep enduring heartbreak after heartbreak.

So, rather than indulge spurious arguments over identity, here’s our attempt to make sense of the action on the field.

DIVISIONAL ROUND SCORES

Saturday:

(#6) Buffalo Bills 30 @ 33 Denver Broncos (#1) OT

(#6) San Francisco 49ers 6 @ 41 Seattle Seahawks (#1)

Sunday:

(#5) Houston Texans 16 @ 28 New England Patriots (#2)

(#5) Los Angeles Rams 20 @ 17 Chicago Bears (#2) OT

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Los Angeles Rams 20 @ 17 Chicago Bears OT

Winners: Caleb Williams & Caleb Williams ‘haters’

For once, Bears fans thought was all going to be different.

Chicago has the ball on the Rams’ 14-yard line. Fourth down. The scoreboard reads 17-10 in L.A.’s favour. The Bears need four yards to keep their season alive.

Williams gathers the snap. Nobody’s open. With the pocket caving in, he sprints backwards to buy time. He turns and throws almost in one motion. The ball loops over Rams corner Cobie Durant — who already had two INTs on the night — into the hands of Cole Kmet. We’re going to overtime.

My description simply cannot do this play justice. The ball travelled more than 51 yards in the air to pick up 14 yards and the score. Williams was almost 30 yards behind the line of scrimmage when he let it rip. Given the circumstances, it’s simply breathtaking. To my money, the second-year signal caller now has the three most spectacular throws of this postseason to his credit. The boy is box office.

And yet, the Bears lost.

Williams’ third interception of the game came with Chicago bearing down on field goal range in OT. One score was all they needed. Williams was looking for D.J. Moore, who was running to the deep right half of the Rams field. He’s one-on-one with a safety. It’s the correct read. But then, Moore slows down. The Rams safety finished the route for him, corralling the ball and setting the Rams up for a game-winning drive of their own. They don’t fluff their lines.

Even with Moore’s curious decision to pull up, the ball was hardly located in a safe spot. Williams was up and down, all game again. There’s so much evidence to suggest the draftniks were correct; this guy is a one-in-a-million-type-dude. But then, there are the missed easy completions, the poor decision-making on third down that requires the miraculous on fourth, the nagging sense that he must drive his playcallers mad half the time. But there’s plenty for everyone to project onto Williams, and that’s what makes him so compelling to watch.

Losers: Chicago’s wide receivers

We’ve already covered Moore’s mistakes, but what about Rome Odunze?

The second-year receiver was targeted four times on Saturday. All of those balls were catchable. He finished with a statline of one grab for 27 yards, and three drops. Odunze should have opened the scoring on the first drive of the game, but his inability to corral a marginally inaccurate ball ultimately led to a Williams interception just two plays later.

Profligacy of that magnitude undermined a sterling effort from the Bears defense. Dennis Allen was dialling up a steady variety of corner blitzes, flustering Matthew Stafford in a patchy effort from the presumptive MVP. Eventually, Stafford and Sean McVay found an answer, diagnosing the pressures on three crucial third down conversions in the fourth quarter. Crucially, the Rams receivers were able to snag their targets every time.

The problem-solving of McVay and Stafford, as well as the reliability of their playmakers in crunch time is ultimately what separated these two teams. It’s also what makes the third showdown of McVay’s offense and Mike Macdonald’s defense in the NFC Championship game so mouthwatering, even if we’re watching it for the third time this season.

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San Francisco 49ers 6 @ 41 Seattle Seahawks

Winner: Mike Macdonald

From the moment Rashid Shaheed housed a 95-yard kickoff return on the first play of the game, you felt this could get ugly for the San Francisco 49ers. Not only were Kyle Shanahan’s side battered and bruised from a punishing 2025 season that saw a cadre of their best-paid stars head for the treatment table, they were already facing a coaching staff seemingly having their number.

While the Niners eked out a 17-13 win over their NFC West rivals in Week 1, Mike Macdonald’s side have held San Francisco to just nine points over their past two matchups. The Seahawks have beguiled Brock Purdy and Shanahan with an adaptable pre-snap zone scheme, that mixes in just enough called pressures to severely limit the 49ers offense’s ability to operate.

Shanahan’s scheme is at its best when the ball is coming out on time. According to TruMedia, the Niners managed just nine ‘in-rhythm’ plays on 33 passing downs. Even on the plays where the ball came out of Purdy’s hands in less than three seconds, they had just 44 percent success rate, with an EPA/per dropback of -0.58. That is pure dominance.

Loser: Brock Purdy

So comprehensive was Seattle’s victory, that it would be harsh to single out Purdy for criticism. A slow start by the Niners’ offense was punished severely by the Seahawks’ offense, as a turnover on downs on the Niners’ first possession, and a Jake Tonges’ fumble on the ensuing drive brought on a 17-0 deficit by the end of the first quarter. The Niners’ best inventions were largely scrapped as soon as the game kicked off, requiring San Francisco to chase an unassailable lead.

However, there were also missed opportunities. Early in the second quarter, Purdy badly missed a wide-open Jauan Jennings for an almost certain touchdown, with Shanahan calling a post corner combo to free the Niners’ #1 receiver for a wide-open touchdown. It’s the type of look you simply have to take against the Seahawks, who are so adept at plugging up gaps on the fly thanks to Macdonald’s ability to coach his players in the flow of the game. That score could have righted the ship, wresting some momentum back for the banged-up sixth seed.

Instead, they saw a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker III, who finished with 116 yards and three scores on the ground, piling up scoreboard pressure while also dwindling away the game clock. A rushed and hurried Purdy finished with a pick, a lost fumble and just 140 yards passing. The Niners are an ageing unit with a bloated cap situation, staring down two behemoths in their own division. Purdy will remain in place, but he might have to settle for a couple of soft rebuild seasons before he gets another shot at postseason play.

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Houston Texans 16 @ 28 New England Patriots

Loser: C.J. Stroud

In our most recent digital magazine, I picked the Houston Texans to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. That prediction was built on two ideas: that this defense is the best in the conference, and that Stroud is a competent enough game manager to win the turnover battle.

Boy, was I wrong…

In two postseason games, Stroud finished with seven turnovers (five picks and two fumbles lost). In the freezing rain and powdery snow at a frigid Gillette Stadium, he followed up a terrible performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers with an unmitigated disaster class.

The second quarter was particularly woeful. After taking a 10-7 lead with a 10-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk, the Texans ensuing drives went like this:

1 play, 0 yards — PICK SIX

4 plays, 10 yards — INTERCEPTION

3 plays, 0 yards — PUNT

4 plays, 27 yards — INTERCEPTION

3 plays, 1 yard — PUNT

The pick six was the type of play that you simply cannot produce in the NFL, let alone in the Divisional round. Stroud rolled out to his left off of play action, looking for tight end Cade Stover in the flat. Stover was tripped, leaving Stroud with no options and facing a free rusher. Rather than take the sack, or throw the ball at the prostrate receiver, he tossed the ball over the middle, allowing superstar return-man Marcus Jones to race onto the ball and into the end zone.

Stroud was inaccurate on passes to the outside, routinely throwing behind his receivers and allowing ball-hawking safeties to break up passes or intercept the ball. It was the type of performance that loses coaches their job; DeMeco Ryans is safe but, given their decision to move on from Bobby Slowik after Stroud’s back-sliding sophomore campaign, OC Nic Caley might have his head on the chopping block. With one year on his rookie deal, questions over Stroud’s long-term future with the ball club will also be asked.

Winner: Keyshon Boutte

This game was there for the Texans to win, thanks in no small part to their defensive line. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson totalled five sacks between them. Drake Maye fumbled four times, losing one. Stroud was routinely given short fields, but failed to capitalise on them.

In a game with next to no consistency on offense, Maye’s ability to produce just enough was the difference maker. However, given his spotty play, we can’t single him out for too much praise. Instead, let’s shout out Keyshon Boutte for his diving one-handed grab that gave the Patriots their 28-16 lead early in the fourth quarter. That almost singular moment of offensive brilliance iced the game, as it became clear that Ryans’ lost faith in his signal caller to produce.

The Patriots will have to clean up their act in Mile High if they are to progress to their first Super Bowl in the post-Brady-Belichick-era, even with the Broncos missing key pieces, but an on-form Boutte will definitely help.

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Buffalo Bills 30 @ 33 Denver Broncos OT

Loser: Josh Allen

After another heart-breaking post-season loss, a tearful Josh Allen stepped up to the podium at Mile High. Rather than shirk responsibility, the league’s best quarterback instead gave us a heartfelt mea culpa.

“I let my team-mates down tonight,” he said. “It’s been a long season. I hate how it ended. It’s gonna stick with me for a long time. Can’t win with five turnovers.”

While you could rightly argue that this incomplete team would never have made it this far without him, in this instance, Allen is probably right. His four turnovers cost Buffalo the game. A curious fumble, trying to gain yards in a hopeless situation before half-time allowed the Broncos to stretch their lead to 10 at the half. While Nik Bonitto was allowed the freedom of the backfield on the opening drive of the second half, Allen’s 10-yard drop and decision to hold onto the ball gave the superstar sack-man a gilt-edge chance for the strip that he duly took. A lackadaisical down-field heave also gave P.J. Locke an easy pick later in the third quarter.

Allen did not need to do it all himself either, as James Cook rebounded from his poor showing against Jacksonville with 117 rushing yards. The Bills were moving the ball but, when Allen has become so accustomed to putting the team on his back, the inkling to push the envelope has seemingly become ingrained.

Winners: Referee ‘haters’ & amateur conspiracists

Of course, Allen’s final turnover was hardly his fault. Even with his mistakes, the Bills were able to fashion a comeback in regulation, forcing the back-and-forth affair into overtime. With the Broncos failing to fashion any momentum in the extra period, the Bills had the chance to win the game. On a third-and-11 from their own 36, the Bills’ quarterback looked for a deep shot to Brandin Cooks. The ball was slightly behind the veteran wide receiver, forcing him to compete with Denver corner Ja’Quan McMillian. Cooks seemingly grabbed the ball, falling to the turf with McMillan on top of him. The momentum of the collision allowed the defender to rip the ball away once they hit the ground. The back judge called the play as a pick.

For my money, it was a catch, but I can see how it was ruled the other way. The decision to progress the game, without the on-field referees looking at the incident on the monitor, was a curious one. Sean McDermott was well within his rights to question the process (he probably feels even more within his rights on Monday morning – Ed.).

Even more galling for the Bills, two pass interferences were subsequently called on the Broncos’ possession, allowing the hosts to position themselves for a Wil Lutz gamewinner.

The afterglow of the Broncos victory was diminished by the controversy, before being almost completely put out by the news that Bo Nix is out for the rest of the playoffs with a broken ankle.

Nevertheless, this was an impressive win for Denver. Their defense took the Bills’ best shots, staying in the fight and creating turnovers to set up their offense in short field situations that they managed to capitalise on. Their goal of reaching the Super Bowl has undoubtedly become harder with Jarrett Stidham under center but, if there’s one man that can scheme up two winning gameplans in a short space of time, it’s Sean Payton.

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