Just as our waistlines prepare to expand thanks to the excessive consumption of festive fare, the NFL is entering its trimming down stage.

In Week 16, the Cardinals, Cowboys and 49ers were all eliminated from postseason consideration, while the picture at the top of the standings also became clearer. Wins for Detroit and Minnesota put even greater scrutiny on their Week 18 matchup, while the Chiefs continue to apply pressure to the other AFC contenders with another professional win.

The NFC East, however, provided the best entertainment on the day, with the Cowboys squeaking out a rare home win over Tampa Bay, and Washington prolonging its best season for over a decade to keep both playoff and division title hopes alive.

***

WEEK 16 SCORES (as of Monday 23^rd December)

Denver Broncos (9-6) 27 @ Los Angeles Charger (9-6) 34

Houston Texans (9-6) 19 @ Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) 27

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) 17 @ Baltimore Ravens (10-5) 34

New York Giants (2-12) 7 @ Atlanta Falcons (8-6) 34

Detroit Lions (13-2) 34 @ Chicago Bears (4-11) 17

Arizona Cardinals (7-8) 30 @ Carolina Panthers (4-11) 36 OT

Los Angeles Rams (9-6) 19 @ New York Jets (4-11) 9

Philadelphia Eagles 33 (12-3) @ Washington Commanders (10-5) 36

Cleveland Browns (4-11) 6 @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) 24

Tennessee Titans (3-12) 30 @ Indianapolis Colts (7-8) 38

Minnesota Vikings (13-2) 27 @ Seattle Seahawks (8-7) 24

New England Patriots (3-12) 21 @ Buffalo Bills (11-4) 24

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-11) 19

San Francisco 49ers (6-9) 17 @ Miami Dolphins (7-8) 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) 24 @ Dallas Cowboys (7-8) 26

***

Game of the Week:
Philadelphia Eagles 33 @ Washington Commanders 36

“I got to catch the goddamn ball,” Devonta Smith said in the locker-room after the Eagles’ gutting last-minute loss in Washington. “It cost us the game.”

This is one of the things that makes the NFL so compelling. Smith’s assertion is true and false at the same time. Yes, if Smith grabs that pass, with the Eagles leading by two points, with a fresh set of downs and the game inside the two-minute warning, Philadelphia locks up the NFC East and at least the second seed in the NFC playoffs. But let’s look at the course of this game in more detail.

Despite losing Jalen Hurts to a first quarter concussion, the Eagles raced to a 21-7 lead at the end of the opening 15 minutes. Saquon Barkley scored twice, one from close range, another from 68 yards, while Kenny Pickett found A.J. Brown on an in-breaking route in relief of Hurts.

The Commanders grew into the game, with rookie Jayden Daniels overcoming two interceptions and a further two fumbles by his running backs to routinely march down the field. Washington scored five passing touchdowns on the day, as former Eagle Olamide Zaccheus and Jamison Crowder hauled in a brace of scores each. Philadelphia’s offense was stymied under the auspices of Pickett, who was nursing a rib injury from the middle of the third quarter, but Washington was also able to keep Barkley in check, with some 109 of his 150 rushing yards came in the first quarter.

It’s unlikely Washington can mount a challenge for the NFC East crown from here, but they will be buoyed by their first ten-win season since 2012. The Eagles will be waiting for Hurts’ prognosis with baited breath. Even with Pickett in the lineup, you’d fancy the Birds to win at least one of their games, against the Cowboys or Giants, in the remainder of the regular season.

***

MVP of the Week
Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold’s redemption arc continues. The seven-year veteran has continually proved doubters wrong in leading the Minnesota Vikings to a 13-2 record. He is just the second quarterback to win at least 13 games in a debut season with a new franchise (Peyton Manning having also achieved the feat in 2013 with the Broncos).

There are still some hairy moments. According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold produced two turnover-worthy plays during Minnesota’s 27-24 road win in Seattle, and also took three sacks, but the Vikings will gladly take this rough, when the majority of the output is so smooth. His game-winning pass to Justin Jefferson, deep in the fourth quarter, saw Darnold climb through a muddied pocket, uncork a pass prior to contact and dissect the Seahawks’s Cover 2 perfectly. He routinely connected with Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, compensating for a bottled-up running game. In 15 games this season, Darnold has eclipsed a 100-passer rating 12 times. That level of consistency will put a difficult question to decision makers in the Twin Cities. Will they extend Darnold? Or allow him to hit the open market with a view to promoting J.J. McCarthy in 2025?

Winner
Jonathan Taylor’s pride

Have you ever messed up at work? Of course you have. Think of that knot in your stomach. The way you avoid eye contact with your quietly-seething line manager. The awkward small talk you make with your boss who was a hair’s breadth from firing your ass, lawsuit be damned. You’ll make it up next time, you think. You’ll show them. You’ll show them all.

Jonathan Taylor’s Week 16 sure showed us all. A week of sneering think pieces, incredulous tweets and blistering hot takes spat into even hotter mics were fuel for the Colts’ running back’s fire. Taylor tallied 218 yards and three scores on 29 attempts in Indianapolis’ 38-30 win over the Tennessee Titans. Two of those touchdowns came on runs of 65 and 70 yards respectively.

His 102 rushing yards ‘over expected’ was the third best performance by a running back in 2024, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. His explosiveness proved the difference, as the Colts nearly frittered away a 31-point lead. They remain in the hunt for the final wildcard berth in the AFC. With Anthony Richardson continuing to struggle in the passing game — the second year signalcaller threw just 11 times on Sunday — a healthy, engaged and mindful Taylor will be crucial to these final two games.

Loser
Kirk Cousins

Why did it take so long for the Falcons to turn to Michael Penix Jr? Well, maybe it’s something to do with the $90m of guaranteed bonuses Atlanta handed to Kirk Cousins in the offseason, in spite of a season-ending Achilles injury in the previous semester.

Where Cousins looked compromised, Penix looked full of life. The rookie showed range, pace and touch on the majority of his throws in the Dirty Birds’ victory over the New York Giants, a far cry from the veteran’s previous few weeks.

The threat of a downfield passing attack opened up a Falcons offense which had become bogged down. Bijan Robinson made the most of wider running lanes, totalling 103 yards from scrimmage and two scores, while Drake London added a touchdown of his own. By no means were Penix and his running mates perfect. There were moments he held the ball too long, and he will learn not to trust Kyle Pitts to snag contested balls in the red zone, but his debut couldn’t have gone much better. With Tampa Bay’s loss in primetime, the Falcons retake the lead in the NFC South.

Winner
Joe Burrow

ESPN’s Ben Baby came through with one of the biggest scoops of the season earlier this week. Keen to keep his offensive linemen sweet, Joe Burrow bought them all Japanese samurai swords for Christmas.

Seeing as Burrow was sacked four times on Sunday, and was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks, might I suggest a more defensive piece of weaponry next time, Joe? Maybe some shields? Those pugilsticks from Gladiators? An airbag system that expands from the offensive tackles chest whenever Myles Garrett attempts to plough through them with another expert bullrush?

Maybe Burrow was inspired by the shopping spree, as he showed the creativity, dexterity and footwork of a master swordsman in his 252-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Browns. On two occasions, Burrow produced genuinely jaw-dropping plays. For the first score of the game, he defied gravity to flip the ball to Tee Higgins. Later, he stepped up in the pocket, evaded two defenders and looped a short arm throw over another to find running back Chase Brown. Burrow’s play continues to keep the Bengals in the playoff hunt. The stats say the Bengals have a 5% chance of making the postseason. With Joe Cool in this sort of form, you still fancy those odds.

Loser
The San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl window

You don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone. The San Francisco 49ers have reached the Super Bowl twice, and the NFC Championship once in the previous five seasons. Injuries, curious coin toss decisions and Andy Reid’s virtuosic play-calling have all conspired to thwart Kyle Shanahan’s men on their march towards the Vince Lombardi trophy. With a 29-17 road loss against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, it feels this core’s chances of getting back to the big game are slim to none.

Christian McCaffrey’s Achilles. Brock Purdy’s contract. Deebo Samuel’s down year. Brandon Aiyuk’s holdout and subsequent injury. Ricky Pearsall’s mugging. Distractions from Nick Bosa’s MAGA hat. It’s been one thing after another for a talented roster which is slipping to a point of no return. John Lynch’s roster is the seventh oldest in the NFL. This team felt like it would get there at some point, but that point never materialised.

***

Stats of the Week

• Brock Bowers became the third tight end to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in their debut season. With two games left in the season, Mike Ditka’s 53-year record is destined to fall. Bowers needs just nine yards to overtake the Hall of Famer.
• Myles Garrett recorded the 100th sack of his career during Sunday’s Battle of Ohio. He is the first player to reach that milestone before turning 29, and is only the second player to record five straight 12-sack seasons since the statistic was officially recorded. He joins Lawrence Taylor in achieving that feat.
• Josh Allen is tied for the most wins by an NFL quarterback in the first seven seasons of his career. He joins Russell Wilson on 75 victories during that timeframe.
• The top three running backs to hit free agency — Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs — are 32-12 with their new franchises. The teams they left? A collective 8-37.