Friday, February 1st, 2019

Gridiron Cheat Sheet: Super Bowl LIII

@UKBenThe12

Gridiron Cheat Sheet: Super Bowl LIII

@UKBenThe12 NFL, NFL Betting

This is it…. this is the BIG one! But where should you put your money? Let RedZone.Bet guide you…

GAME ODDS

Los Angeles Rams (+2) vs New England Patriots (-2)

  • Both teams have a clean bill of health, although the Rams are reportedly dealing with some illness within the squad
  • 38 members of the Patriots roster have played in a Super Bowl including 8 who have played in the last three in a row. The Rams have four players with Super Bowl experience
  • The Rams are 7-0 in games John Parry has refereed, the Patriots are 9-5
  • The Rams have only had 19 drives (from 183) which have resulted in a three-and-out all season, the lowest in the league
  • Tom Brady has been pressured at the lowest rate of any QB in the post season at only 16%. Jared Goff is the second lowest at 24%. Brady hasn’t been sacked, Goff has been sacked once
  • Brady has been getting the ball out faster (average 2.18 seconds) than any other QB in the post-season and the regular season, decreasing his chances of being sacked significantly
  • Both quarterbacks have thrown down field at a lower rate in the post-season, from around 11% in the regular season for both, down to 8.9% and 7.4% for Brady and Goff respectively in the post-season
  • Goff continued to struggle when under pressure last week. He had a regular season QB rating of 59.8 when under pressure, in the post-season it’s 43.2. For comparison, Brady’s ratings are 71.2 and 76.2 in the regular and post-season respectively
  • No offensive lineman on either team has allowed their QB to be sacked in the post-season, and only one quarterback hit has been allowed
  • In the post-season, the Rams have recorded four sacks, and the Patriots have recorded seven
  • The Patriots have significantly increased their QB pressure rate in the post-season, by nearly doubling their regular season rate of pass rush stunts and blitz plays
  • How well the pass rush can get to the quarterback, especially the Patriots getting to Jared Goff, will be key to the outcome of the game
  • The Rams have used play action at a higher rate than any other team in the playoffs (40%), and it’s worked, with Goff having a QB rating of 105, compared with 64 when it isn’t used. His QB rating without play action has gone down significantly compared to his regular season rating of 95
  • Julian Edelman is the most-used and most prolific post-season wide receiver playing in the game, with 21 targets for 16 catches and 247 yards. More than half of his snaps and yards came from the slot
  • Phillip Dorsett has only been targeted seven times, but three of them were deep and he has two touchdowns
  • Robert Woods has been playing the majority slot role in the post-season for the Rams, with 58% of snaps. However, only seven of his 17 targets have been from routes run from the slot
  • Patriots cornerback JC Jackson has been tested in the post-season having been targeted 19 times. Allowing only nine receptions initially looks impressive, but he has only broken up two passes and has given up four penalties. He looks set to see a lot of Brandin Cooks this week and the Rams will want to continue to test Jackson deep
  • In the conference championship game, Todd Gurley was fit, but didn’t see much action. He was out-snapped (36 to 32) and out carried (16 to 4) by CJ Anderson, even though Anderson only averaged 2.8 yards per carry. From his 32 snaps, Gurley carried the ball, or was targeted, only seven times
  • Wade Phillips as DC or HC is 3-6 against Brady/Belichick (4-5 ATS), including 1-2 in playoff games (2-1 ATS)
  • The Rams defense is bottom 5 against the rush, when they have struggled this season (Weeks 5, 8, 14 and 15), it is when teams have been able to consistently run on them
  • When the Patriots have struggled this year (Weeks 2, 3 and 10), they have been behind multiple scores early. They have only won one game this season from 10+ points behind (Week 7), they were behind by 10 points for only ten plays when Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff for a touchdown. They were 11-0 when leading after the first quarter and 2-5 when they trailed
  • In the eight Brady/Belichick Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots have scored a total of three points in the first quarter


KEYS TO THE GAME:

Patriots

  • Put Goff under pressure to force mistakes
  • Don’t be beaten over the top
  • Get passes out quickly
  • Beat up the Rams in the run game
  • Long, time-consuming drives

Rams

  • Get an early lead
  • Protect Goff, and don’t let him take risks
  • Keep the defense off the field
  • Exploit play-action deep
  • Trust Gurley in the pass game


Got a question or comment, or want to ask about the stats of a specific match-up, then hit up @UKBenThe12 on Twitter

GRIDIRON BETS OF THE WEEK

Patriots to win by 7-12 points
Sony Michel any time TD
ENHANCED DOUBLE….6/1

Todd Gurley any time TD
Todd Gurley over 150 yards
Rams under 26.5 points
ENHANCED TREBLE….33/1

(odds correct at the time of publishing)

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