Warmed up by Week 1 and Thursday Night Football, let us guide you through the numbers with some precious Week 2 nuggets for the rest of the slate.

GAME ODDS

CAROLINA (+5.5) @ ATLANTA

• Falcons 4-1 in their last 5 matchups
• Atlanta defence loses Deion Jones and Keanu Neal to IR
• Panthers lose TE Greg Olsen to IR, linebacker Luke Kuechly is questionable and look to be without three starting offensive linemen in Williams, Turner and Kalil. Davis still suspended.
• The Panthers travel plans have been disrupted by Hurricane Florence
• Atlanta’s red zone woes from last season continue to this week (turnover on downs, FG, interception, end of game)
• Atlanta’s rush defence last week = 8 attempts, 16 yards until Neal tore his ACL, 19 attempts for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns after
• Carolina had 6 sacks last week
• Carolina’s offense last week was very successful on first and second down (55% success each), but saw a dropoff on third down (33%)

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ BUFFALO (+7)

• Bills’ Nathan Peterman had a QB rating of 0 (zero) until he was pulled from the game, but this slightly masks the fact he had the least amount of time to throw of any QB in week 1
• Rookie Josh Allen has since been confirmed as this week’s starter for Buffalo
• The Bills finished with 153 yards of total offence in the game
• The spread line has moved significantly after week 1, with the look-ahead line at Chargers -1
• Virgil Green (54%) played more snaps than Antonio Gates (40%) at TE
• The Chargers are still without Joey Bosa with a bruised foot
• In week 1, the Chargers were third in net yards per play (7.3), the Bills were dead last (2.5)

MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY (OTB)

• Packers up to 15/1 in play last week, before their fourth quarter comeback
• Vikings are 4-1 in their last 5 match-ups
• Vikings RB Latavius Murray only played 14 snaps but had 11 carries
• After Aaron Rodgers injured his knee, DeShone Kizer had a sack fumble and a pick six.
• Rodgers is yet to be confirmed as starting, without him the spread line may be around GB +7, with him it will be closer to +2
• Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham both played all except one offensive snap last week. Adams day-to-day with a shoulder injury
• GB RB Jamaal Williams saw the ball 46% of the time he was on the field but, when Ty Montgomery was in the backfield, he only saw the ball 22% of the time

CLEVELAND (+9.5) @ NEW ORLEANS

• 0-0-1 is the best Week 1 record the Browns have had since 2004
• Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson with a similar snap count share in the Browns backfield in week 1, Nick Chubb only on the field for 4 offensive snaps (3 carries)
• Browns starting DE Emmanuel Ogbah is questionable for Sunday
• Rashard Higgins (61% snap count, 4 targets) currently playing WR3 for the Saints, with Antonio Callaway (17% snap count, 1 target) eased in
• Drew Brees ranked the 2nd best QB in week 1, unlucky for him that he came up against ‘Fitzmagic’ as number 1
• With Mark Ingram suspended, instead of increasing Alvin Kamara’s low workload or sharing it with Mike Gillislee in week 1, they increased their pass percentage from 55% in 2017 up to 78%. With Kamara staying on the field for 81% of snaps. If they are in a close game before Ingram comes back, I’d expect Kamara to get more touches

MIAMI (+2.5) @ NEW YORK JETS

• Frank Gore was more successful at running back than Kenyan Drake
• Starting Guard Josh Sitton listed as questionable for the Dolphins
• Sam Darnold’s first start at QB didn’t begin very well, but he ended with a QB rating of 116.8
• Miami managed to overcome a 20% third down success rate to win last week
• Quincy Enunwa saw 10 of the 21 passing targets last week
• Isaiah Crowell had success running the football last week and faces a below average rush defence in the Dolphins this week

KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH (OTB)

• Pittsburgh 4-1 in their last 5 matchups
• Steelers CB Joe Haden currently has a hamstring strain and is questionable, with Tyreek Hill on the slate. Ben Roethlisberger nursing an elbow injury.
• Chiefs All-Pro safety Eric Berry looks unlikely to play again
• With Le’Veon Bell’s hold-out, James Conner ranked 5th rusher in week 1 (of players with 10+ carries)
• The Steelers are easing in James Washington (13% snap count, no targets), with Justin Hunter (61% snap count, 5 targets) playing WR3
• Travis Kelce was on the field for every offensive snap last week
• The Chiefs’ defence gave up 189 receiving yards to running backs in week 1, the Steelers should get Conner involved as much as possible

PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY (+3)

• Eagles offense started the season with a committee backfield, snap counts and touches Jay Ajayi (40%, 15), Darren Sproles (40%, 9), Corey Clement (18%, 5). Sproles listed as questionable with a hamstring
• The big win last week has come at a cost for Tampa Bay, losing Vernon Hargreaves for the season for the season and have question marks this week around DeSean Jackson, Jason Pierre Paul, Brent Grimes and Vita Vea
• Of the Eagles receivers, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor combined for 74% of targets last week
• After a relatively poor 2017 season linking up with Jameis Winston, DeSean Jackson was the best rated WR in week 1 when combining with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was the best rated QB of week 1
• Jackson is currently in the concussion protocol and is listed as questionable, whilst Vernon Hargreaves looks to be done for the season

HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE (+2.5)

• The Texans lose starting tackle Seantrel Henderson for the season.
• The Titans lose TE Delanie Walker for the season, are probably without starting tackle Taylor Lewan, and both Corey Davis and Marcus Mariota are at least carrying injuries if they make it on the field
• Texans are 7-3 in their last 10 match-ups
• The Titans struggled against the Dolphins OL last week, exemplified by them allowing 6.8 yards-per-carry to the 35-year-old Frank Gore
• Dion Lewis (21 touches, 110 yards, TD) was much more effective than Derrick Henry (11 touches, 27 yards)
• Ryan Griffin is the feature TE in Houston now, with 84% snap count and 31 routes

INDIANAPOLIS (+5.5) @ WASHINGTON

• Adrian Peterson had more receiving yards out of the backfield than he’s had in any game since 2011
• With time, Andrew Luck played very well last week, under pressure he had a QB rating of 25.7 and 3 yards per attempt
• Luck also continued his pre-season tendency of preferring short passes, only attempting 3 of 20+ yards
• Alex Smith played as well as he needed to in the easy win against the Cardinals, it remains to be seen how the Redskins offense will look against a strong defence from behind, a situation they are unlikely to be up against this week
• Washington graded number 2 in pass rush against Sam Bradford and the Cardinals OL last week, and should continue to have success this week

ARIZONA (+13) @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

• After the first team offense all took zero pre-season snaps, it’s not a surprise the Rams offense didn’t get going in the first half last week
• The Cardinals defence was on the field a lot last week, 50% more than their opponents were
• The Rams allowed 180 yards to the tight end last week
• Ricky Seals-Jones was on the field for 92% of the Cardinals offensive snaps last week and could be the focus of Bradford’s attack with Larry Fitzgerald lined up against Patrick Peters or Aqib Talib
• The Rams run a lot of balanced target share three WR sets, the Cardinals secondary is unbalanced in terms of quality, there will be quality mismatches. Cooper Kupp looks to be the WR redzone target

DETROIT (+6) @ SAN FRANCISCO

• Jimmy Garoppolo had a QB rating of 45.1 last week, below Blaine Gabbert
• Alfred Morris and Matt Breida used nearly equally in the backfield, but neither were used in the passing offense (2 targets)
• Detroit allowed 5.7 yards per rushing attempt against an average rush offense last week
• Based on QB rating (47.9), last week Matt Stafford had the worst game he has had since December 2012

OAKLAND (+6.5) @ DENVER

• Mile High is a hard place to go early in the year – Broncos now 31-4-1 (89% win rate) in their last 35 home games in weeks 1 or 2
• Broncos 7-3 in their last 10 match-ups
• The Raiders gave away more penalty yards (155) than any other team in week 1
• Beyond the Chargers (3rd), Oakland were the only other team in the top 10 in net yards per play to lose
• Jared Cook had more yard (180) than all other Oakland receivers combined (120), with the wide receivers only accounting for 54 yards

NEW ENGLAND @ JACKSONVILLE (+0)

• Leonard Fournette’s injury struggles spill in to 2018, leaving the Giants game early last week
• Austin Seferian-Jenkins looks set to be heavily involved in the Jags offense this year, he was on the field for 87% of offensive snaps last week but his blocking efficiency leaves a lot of room for improvement
• The Patriots WR1, Chris Hogan, had 1 reception for 11 yards against the Texans even though he was on the field for 90% of the snaps
• The RB situation in New England is now even more uncertain, they lost Jeremy Hill to IR, Sony Michel may be on his way to game time and Rex Burkhead is now listed as having a concussion.
• The Patriots run blocking play was below average last week, and with the Jaguars elite at pass defence, the Patriots rushing attack must be improve and end up successful enough as to not end up one dimensional

NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) @ DALLAS

• The Dallas score line last week was a little flattering, there was nearly nothing positive on offense
• Without Travis Frederick, Ezekiel Elliot’s rushing success rate was dreadful (26%)
• Two Giants offensive linemen (Omameh and Flowers) graded in the bottom 5 offensive linemen last week
• Saquon Barkley entrusted with a heavy workload from week 1 with 83% of the RB target share
• Dak Prescott (21/34) and Eli Manning (31/34) were both poor when under pressure last week. The Cowboys DL are more likely to put Manning under pressure than the Giants are to rush Prescott
• The Cowboys recorded 16 missed tackles in week 1, this must improve if they don’t want OBJ or Barkley ripping off a long TD

SEATTLE (+3) @ CHICAGO

• Seattle wanted to be more balanced on offense this year, but both Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny (7 carries each), ranked in the bottom 6 of 39 RBs in week 1
• Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times by the Denver last week, Chicago’s DL with the Khalil Mack addition is at least as good
• Seattle’s rookie punter, Michael Dickson, had 6 punts which only resulted in 9 returned yards
• Doug Baldwin was already carrying a minor knee injury, he has now tweaked the other one. There is little doubt that Tyler Lockett (98% snap count, 39 routes) is the feature WR, even if his bottom line figures last week weren’t impressive (4 targets, 3 catches, 59 yards)
• Jordan Howard graded the best RB in week 1
• After Mitch Trubisky had a strong first half (11/14, 109 yards, TD), there was a significant dropoff in the second half last week when the game script wore off (12/21, 62 yards)

GRIDIRON BETS OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia (-3) OVER Tampa Bay
Carolina (+5.5) OVER Atlanta
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) OVER Buffalo

ODDS: 16/09

Under 45 points New England @ Jacksonville
Under 45.5 points Oakland @ Denver
Buffalo to throw 2 or more interceptions

ODDS: 16/09

(odds correct at the time of publishing)

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