Whether or not you made your money work for you on Thursday Night Football, we’ve got something for the weekend, with crucial clues to the remaining 15 games…

GAME ODDS

Buffalo Bills (+16.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

• LeSean McCoy is listed as questionable after picking up an injury last week
• At 16.5 points, this is the biggest spread of the week by a clear margin
• With McCoy out, Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy are likely to split snaps
• Dalvin Cook still struggling at RB, with only 31% of runs graded successful in the first two weeks
• Buffalo underperformed the spread by 20 points over the first two weeks, second worst in the league
• In his first 1.5 games under centre, Josh Allen has attempted the third highest number of passes >20 yards, only 3 fewer than Patrick Mahomes on the same number of dropbacks

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Carolina Panthers

• Joe Mixon has grown in to the feature back for the Bengals, seeing 84% of carries and a 58% success rate over the first two weeks, but is now struggling with a minor knee issue and won’t play
• John Ross steadily increasing his workload in the offense, solid WR3 this year seeing 62% of snaps
• Without Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess’ workload naturally increases (5 to 9 targets between Weeks 1 and 2)
• With significant OL injuries, dunking off to Christian McCaffrey is likely to continue to be prevalent
• Rookie starting center Billy Price is out for the Bengals

Denver Broncos (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

• Von Miller has the highest number of sacks over 2 weeks (4.0), including 2 forced fumbles
• Phillip Lindsay is the first undrafted player with 100+ scrimmage yards in each of his first two starts
• The Ravens rushing attack is struggling, Alex Collins’ runs have graded successful only 31% of the time. This is slightly masked by the fact they currently have the second worst rush OL play
• After Joe Flacco looked good against the weak Bills defence (QB rating 121.7), he regressed in Week 2 (76.0) closer to recent years (average 82.3 2015-2017)

Green Bay Packers @ Washington (+2.5)

• Aaron Rodgers is expected to continue to play, but won’t be 100% for another 2-4 weeks
• Jamaal Williams has had 77% of backfield carried for GB this season, but only has a run success rate of 39%. The fourth overall rusher from 2017 (with 50+ attempts), Aaron Jones, comes back from suspension this week. Washington is 29th against the run so far this season
• With an average run attack, the Packers are resting nearly all the offense on number 12, 68:32 pass:run ratio through the first two weeks
• Chris Thompson has 29% team target share this season even though he is only on the field 54% of snaps, seeing the ball on 37% of his snaps

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

• Carson Wentz starts his first game of the season, is very unlikely to be anywhere near as mobile for at least the first half of the season
• With Darren Sproles out, Corey Clement’s backfield touches went up from 17% in Week 1 to 41% in Week 2
• Between the Conference Championship and Super Bowl last year, Nick Foles graded as high as Tom Brady did across the season. Over the first two weeks, he has graded 26/31 of qualifying QBs, even with fifth overall pass protection
• Foles wasn’t helped by his receiving options, very limited beyond Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz, especially now Mike Wallace is out for the foreseeable future
• The Colts OL have performed relatively well through the first two weeks, even playing strong pass rush defensive lines, they face another strong line this week with Fletcher Cox, Chris Long and Michael Bennett
• Colts rookie Darius Leonard leads the NFL in tackles (21) through two weeks and is currently graded the second best linebacker

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

• Their last 10 head-to-head match-ups have averaged 45.4 points per game
• Michael Thomas has the most receptions through two weeks (28), a full eight receptions ahead of the next highest
• Atlanta’s redzone offense flipped 180 degrees in Week 2, with 4 TDs from 4 trips
• With only Alvin Kamara in the backfield, the Saints have struggled to get any conventional run game going so far this year
• The Saints have a top-five rush defence so far this year and, with Devonta Freeman out, Tevin Coleman alone in the Falcons backfield may struggle for production

New York Giants (+6) @ Houston Texans

• Saquon Barkley’s target share went up from 17% in Week 1 to 37% in Week 2
• The Texans are the highest-ranked offense without a win (13th) and the highest-ranked defense without a win (18th)
• Back from injury, Will Fuller put up 8 catches from 9 targets for 113 yards and a TD last week
• Eli Manning is ranked 26/31 in yards per attempt
• Manning has a passer rating of 67.1 when targeting Barkley

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins

• Ryan Tannehill has thrown the fewest passes of all QBs that have played both full games over the first two weeks (51)
• Derek Carr is the second most accurate QB through two weeks by adjusted pass percentages (85.5%), but has had the least average time to throw in the league (2.18 seconds)
• Although there haven’t been many splash plays >20 yards so far, Kenyan Drake is having a sneakily efficient start to the season
• Miami are the worst overall team still unbeaten

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Patrick Mahomes is 38/55 for 582 yards for 10 TDs and no interceptions through the first two weeks
• The player with the most rushing yards through two weeks… Matt Breida (184). Breida also leads the league in RB rushing yards per attempt (8.4)
• Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled with accuracy through two weeks (% adjusted completion rate) and has the significant disparity between playing with play-action (12.0 yards per attempt) and without (5.6 YPA)
• The Chiefs are 2-0, but they are dead last in overall defence. They are likely to struggle when they come up against a balanced team with an above average defence
• Marquise Goodwin a key injury to monitor for the 49ers, a big help for Jimmy G if he is good to go

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (OTB)

• Marcus Mariota is still struggling to grip the ball on his throwing hand, and his playing status is still unclear
• Titans are 7-3 in their last 10 match-ups (since 2013)
• With Leonard Fournette out last week, the Jaguars backfield was split between TJ Yeldon (58%) and Corey Grant (42%)
• Blake Bortles graded his best career game when beating the Patriots last week
• The Titans managed to win last week whilst recording a full two yards per play fewer than the Texans

Los Angeles Chargers (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams

• The Rams have covered the spread by 34 points in the first two weeks
• With Todd Gurley such a threat for defences to account for, Sean McVay is giving Jared Goff more play-action passes than any other QB (41%)
• With time (QB rating 119) or play-action (114), Goff looks above average. Under pressure, he struggles more than most, with a QB rating of 51 and a turnover worthy play rate of 7%
• Through two weeks, Melvin Gordon has more passing targets (20) than all Chargers receivers, including Keenan Allen (19)
• Mike Williams has looked better than Tyrell Williams over the first two games and should see an increase in target share if his performance continues

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (+5)

• Sam Bradford has thrown for the fewest yards of all QBs that have played both full games over the first two week (243) and has thrown only two balls >20 yards from 66 dropbacks
• David Johnson had two targets for one catch and had 92% of his runs to the inside in the loss to the Rams last week, questionable alignment with his skillset
• The Cardinals have underperformed the point spread by 40 points through the first two weeks
• Mitchell Trubisky has ranked 30/31 in overall QB play (of QBs with 50+ dropbacks) over the first two weeks even with strong OL play (2nd overall)
• The Bears have the highest ranking defence though two weeks, against the second-worst offense this week in the Cards

Dallas Cowboys (+2) @ Seattle Seahawks

• The Seahawks are most likely still without KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner and Doug Baldwin
• Dallas are struggling to decide their favourite wide receivers, with six players having 20+ snaps and Cole Beasley having the most at only 62% (73 snaps)
• Ezekiel Elliot has seen 98% of the backfield touches through two weeks, but their rush play is significantly down this year (17/32), compared with 2017 (6/32), without Travis Frederick
• The Seahawks run and rush OL play is the worst in the league through two weeks
• Their OL pass protection is currently average (16/32) after being second-worst last season

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions

• Matt Patricia is currently continuing the tradition of former Bill Belichick coaches not looking great when moving in to a head coach role (40% win rate)
• The Patriots backfield continues to be unsettled with injuries, James White the only stable player with a consistent snap count (36, 34).
• Being traded to the Patriots seems to have aided in the healing process of Josh Gordon’s hamstring injury
• The Patriots are currently without Trey Flowers (currently ranked best overall edge rusher through two weeks) and Patrick Chung. It isn’t clear if either will play
• The Lions are ranked 28/32 in rush defense through the first two weeks, something Belichick is likely to exploit – and, if Darius Slay doesn’t go (concussion), the Lions may struggle to stop Brady in the pass

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2)

• Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown more passing yards than any other QB through two weeks (819)
• Ben Roethlisberger has attempted the most passes (101) over the first two weeks
• The Bucs and Steelers are first and second in total offensive yards per game
• The Steelers have had all off-season to work on how their defence will look without Shazier and appear on the brink of collapse. TJ Watt was covering Sammy Watkins last week

GRIDIRON BETS OF THE WEEK

New England (-6.5) OVER Detroit
New Orleans (+3) OVER Atlanta
Chicago (-5.5) OVER Arizona

ODDS: 7/1

Over 56 points San Francisco @ Kansas City
Over 5.5 total touchdowns LA Chargers @ LA Rams
Carson Wentz to throw 3 or more touchdowns

ODDS: 10/1

(odds correct at the time of publishing)

RedZone Sports are unique in that they set their own NFL betting lines, rather than simply following those from Las Vegas. To see what all the fuss is about, check them out!