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GAME ODDS

Cincinnati Bengals (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons

• With the loss of Ricardo Allen, the Falcons are now without their spine on defence (Allen, Deion Jones, Keanu Neal), all but killing their chances of a playoff run
• Joe Mixon has had a minor knee operation and is expected to sit out another couple of weeks, but there is no need for the Bengals to rush him back with Giovanni Bernard as sufficient cover
• The OL still needs to improve in run blocking to make this Bengals team a well-rounded contender
• Tyler Boyd had the best game of his career last week, 6/7 for 132 yards and a TD
• Finally it looks like Steve Sarkisian has put the red zone jumbo to bed – long live 11 and 12 sets! The Falcons are 8 TDs from 8 trips in the last 2 weeks with Matt Ryan completing every attempt
• With their defensive injuries, struggles in running the ball with Devonta Freeman still out, and the Bengals playing well on offense, Ryan will have to perform lights out again to not let this game get away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears

• Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best ranked QB through 3 weeks and becomes the first player in NFL history to record 400+ yards in three consecutive games. But, with Jameis Winston back, does he get benched?
• The Bucs rush offense is still struggling, Payton Barber is what we thought he was (below average), there’s limited chance of this improving and, when their pass offense regresses (it will, the production is unsustainable), they may be found out
• The Bears rank second overall in pass block OL play
• Despite this, QB Mitch Trubisky continues to be awful on all metrics, only ahead on Sam Bradford (who was benched). His only success has come in the middle of the field 0-10 yards. He will not get a better opportunity than against this poor Bucs pass defense
• The Bears backfield is interesting, with Jordan Howard having some success and grading as a top 5 RB this year but working mostly from shotgun. They haven’t managed to get Tarik Cohen involved as much as last year in the passing game as yet

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

• Almost inevitably, Dallas’ all-pro linebacker and on-field defensive coordinator Sean Lee is injured. Rookie Leighton Vander Esch has looked more than capable in both pass coverage and rush defence so far this year, but it remains to be seen how much Lee’s coordinator skills are missed
• Chidobe Awuzie was scorched all game against the Seahawks WRs, the strong balanced WR corps (more likely Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones rather than Golden Tate, who should stay in the slot) of the Lions leaves him no place to hide
• Kerryon Johnson gives Detroit their first 100-yard rusher since Reggie Bush in 2013. After ranking dead last in rushing in 2017, they are now up to 25th, with Johnson ranking first in RB successful play percentage
• Dallas have been average this season against teams with clear weaknesses so, when they come up against a team which can put together a balanced performance, they are going to struggle
• The Lions don’t have a great defense, and struggle to stop the run, but if they can prevent Zeke from making big plays, their offense can keep it close

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers

• The spread has moved 4.5 points from the look ahead line after the Bills embarrassed the Vikings last week
• The Packers are without Muhammad Wilkerson, but it shouldn’t affect them too much in this system. It still isn’t clear if LeSean McCoy will play for the Bills
• With Aaron Jones back last week, the Packers backfield was run by committee, but expect him to take a more prominent role after he shakes off the rust
• Josh Allen has a QB rating of 26.3 when under pressure, the worst in the NFL
• Taron Johnson looks to be the Bills slot corner, a mismatch against Randall Cobb, just as he was against Adam Thielan last week

Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

• Jack Doyle looks to be out again for the Colts this week with an ongoing hip injury
• Bill O’Brian is on the hot seat, current favourite for first coach to be fired
• Regardless of the quality of players at skill positions, it is tough to be a winning team with bad OL play. The winless Texans rank 29th in pass protection and 28th in run block
• Andrew Luck’s lack of arm strength was finally without question last week with Jacoby Brissett coming in for the final Hail Mary play
• TY Hilton’s biggest strengths (speed and downfield danger) are therefore severely limited. His depth of target has gone from 13.6 yards for 2014-2017 to 8.2 yards in 2018
• Both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller rank as top 12 WRs, above OBJ and Adam Thielen, and Watson ranks as a top 12 QB, above Stafford and Ryan. However, beyond these 3 and JJ Watt, they are poor

New York Jets (+7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Jags RB star Leonard Fournette and backup TJ Yeldon are both listed as questionable. More importantly, versatile defensive lineman Calais Campbell left the game last week with an ankle injury and may not play
• The Jags should try to get TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins involved in the play more, opening up single coverage for the WRs on the outside later in the game
• Isaiah Crowell has been impressive when given the opportunity in a balanced backfield with Bilal Powell
• Sam Darnold has struggled as the Jets starting QB so far this season, ranked 28/31 qualifying QBs and with a QB rating of 36.7 when under pressure
• Darnold is yet to play an above average defense, Jacksonville are currently ranked 12th and the Jets are average at best in pass blocking. If Campbell plays, the Jets offense is likely to struggle

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) @ New England Patriots

• Ryan Tannehill is 10-1 in his last 11 starts. Miami are 3-0 for the first time since 2013
• The home team is 10-1 in the last 11 matchups. The Dolphins have lost their last 9 in a row in Foxboro
• Rex Burkhead has been placed on IR, opening the door for first round draft pick Sony Michel
• The Patriots defensive injuries are key; Chung, Flowers and Rowe all didn’t play in the loss to Detroit and are all listed as questionable
• Dolphins cornerback Xavian Howard has taken a significant step forward this year, only allowing 5/15 receptions when thrown to. However, when he has been beaten, he has allowed 18 yards after catch per reception

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

• Carson Wentz looked better than expected in his first start whilst lacking weapons around him due to injury, although his mobility will continue to be limited and the playbook will reflect this
• The Eagles are expecting both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles to return, potentially along with Alshon Jeffrey
• Marcus Mariota is struggling to grip the ball due to a nerve problem and was back-up to Blaine Gabbert last week, before the latter’s concussion forced him in. Mariota will probably have to start this week.
• Mariota’s hand problem causes him to struggle to throw spirals and will affect his accuracy. He only threw the ball 18 times from 53 snaps for 12 completions, more importantly he only threw 2 passes of 10+ yards (both incomplete)
• Combined with the fact that the Titans have ran the ball on 73% of first downs, the highest in the league, the Eagles, with their top 5 run defense, will be able to pack the box with no fear of the big play

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

• The battle for the bottom of NFC West this season
• After Bradford sack fumbled, Josh Rosen was brought in for the final quarter when only 2 points down against the Bears last week, performing adequately without being able to get them over the line. He starts this week
• He inherits the worst pass block OL in the league. How he performs under pressure will be everything. Luckily Rosen’s first start is against the second worst pass rush in the league
• Rosen should have David Johnson and Ricky Seals-Jones as his favourite friends, whilst keeping an eye out for Christian Kirk for the deep explosive play
• Seattle have the worst rush block OL play in the league and their first round draft pick Rashaad Penny has so far struggled, with 43 yards from 20 attempts
• 26 defensive rookies have played 100+ snaps through 3 weeks, Seattle’s 5th round cornerback Tre Flowers grades the worst (and he didn’t even play in week 2). Their 3rd round defensive end Rasheem Green is also in the bottom three

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders

• This is the battle of poor special team play, if either can be average it will likely cause a big swing
• After coming into the game in the second quarter, Baker Mayfield graded the highest rookie QB debut in the last 10 years
• As expected, the fourth overall draft pick Denzel Ward has slotted directly in at cornerback for the Browns, having only been found out by Michael Thomas so far this season. Maybe more surprisingly, 5th round draft pick Genard Avery has performed well when filling in at outside linebacker
• Oakland have been schizophrenic so far this season, winning all 3 of the first halves with a cumulative score of 35-17 before being blasted in 17-64 in the second halves
• With Amari Cooper struggling, Jordy Nelson seems to be Carr’s lead receiver
• The Raiders rank dead last in adjusted sack rate this year. The Bears are first…
• Derek Carr has struggled when under pressure so far, with a QB rating of 32.1, how the Raiders OL performs against the Browns pass rush will be key

San Francisco 49ers (+10) at Los Angeles Chargers

• With Jimmy Garoppolo out for the season with an ACL, the 49ers are back to CJ Beathard, who ranked 31/35 qualifying QBs last season, behind Brian Hoyer and Jay Cutler
• Garoppolo to Beathard resulted in spread line movement of around 6 points
• This downgrade may limit the utility of Matt Breida, the number 1 ranked running back through 3 weeks
• First round rookie safety Derwin James has been very impressive for the Chargers through three weeks, 3/7, 13 yards, 2 passes broken up, 2 sacks
• The Chargers are the best offense under .500 but their defense has struggled. Given the 49ers QB situation and their rock bottom ranked defense, the Chargers have no excuse

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (+3)

• Giants TE Evan Engram is out with a sprained MCL. It’s still unclear if Eli Apple or Olivier Vernon will play
• Drew Brees (2/34), Michael Thomas (5/88) and Alvin Kamara (8/39 rushing and 1/55 receiving RBs) are the best performing trio in the league
• Michael Thomas has a staggering 38 receptions from 40 targets for 298 yards through 3 weeks. He is on pace for 200 receptions this season – the record is 143
• The Saints secondary struggled against the high-powered offenses of the Bucs and Falcons, and they now lose Patrick Robinson to IR. However, they have a string of average opponents on the slate for the next few weeks, so I would expect their defense to regress back to somewhere closer to last year
• Considering their flaws last year, the Giants OL have performed pretty well against the pass rush this year, which is saying something considering they have faced the highly skilled DL of the Jaguars, Cowboys and Texans. Although I’d be surprised if whoever plays at right tackle this week (Ereck Flowers or Chad Wheeler) doesn’t struggle against Cameron Jordan

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Ben Roethlisberger looked slightly better last week against the weak Bucs defense but, in general, has not looked great, 27/34 ranked QBs
• When facing average or below average defences, the Ravens unit is in the top 10
• JuJu Smith-Schuster has better numbers than Antonio Brown so far this year, with a similar target share but significantly increased reception percentage. The Steelers could do with James Washington coming on to make them credible in 11 sets, but he is yet to show very much of anything
• Beyond Buck Allen on the goal line, the Ravens rushing attack has looked average at best. Alex Collins’ poor figures are masked by awful OL rush play
• Joe Flacco has been perfectly average through 3 weeks, but that’s all they need from him. He needs help from his receivers and the rushing game to stay in games on offense. I expect him to take some shots downfield to John Brown against this poor Steelers secondary

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+4)

• 5th overall draft pick Bradley Chubb has the most QB pressures (11) of the 2018 draft class through 3 weeks. However, 7 of these came against the awful Seahawks OL in week 1
• Chubb, on the other side, was thought to release Von Miller, this has not borne fruit so far, with Miller only averaging 3 pressures per game (average 5.2 for 2015-2017)
• Chiefs base secondary Steven Nelson (CB), Kendall Fuller (CB), Ron Parker (S) and Eric Murray (S) have all played >98% of the snaps this season; Targeting them results in a QB rating of 119, 102, 99 and 140 respectively with 41/61 for 519 yards and 5 TDs
• Targeting starting MLB Anthony Hitchens (93% of snaps) is even better with a 96% completion rate from 24 targets for 241 yards and a TD
• Pat Mahomes is yet to make a turnover-worthy play. The Broncos defense is the best one he has faced yet, but also struggles in coverage. If the Chiefs manage to get past the Broncos, he may come crashing back down to earth next week

GRIDIRON BETS OF THE WEEK

Tennessee (+4) OVER Philadelphia
LA Chargers (-10) OVER San Francisco
Miami (+6.5) OVER New England

ODDS: 7/1

New York Jets 2 or more interceptions @ Jacksonville
Under 44.5 total points Cleveland @ Oakland
Over 51 points Cincinnati @ Atlanta

ODDS: 5/1

(odds correct at the time of publishing)

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