All the pointers you need to consider for the weekend’s NFL action, brought to you, as usual, in association with RedZone Sports…

GAME ODDS

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

• The Falcons, basically now a defenceless team, will continue to need and score on every possession to stay in games. It may not be possible to set a total line high enough when they play good offenses
• In their 4 games, Atlanta have allowed an average of 14 attempts for 11 catches and 83 yards per game to running backs. Is Mike Tomlin bright enough to target James Conner 14 times?
• Devonta Freeman may return this week to balance Tevin Coleman in the Falcons backfield
• Juju Smith-Schuster had a poor game last week with only 4 catches from 10 targets, making this a perfect spot for a buy low opportunity
• Brian Poole at slot corner is no match, torched in week 2 by Jarius Wright and yet to play against a good slot receiver this year
• Pittsburgh have been very good against the run this year but it remains to be seen how they will respond to pass catching backs, with Kareem Hunt the only one they have faced and the Chiefs decided not to use him as such (1 target)
• If the Chiefs have success with Coleman and/or Freeman, this will be a shootout because there are no other strengths to either defence

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns (+3)

• The Ravens have the second best ranked coverage in the league, the fourth overall defence so far, and three cornerbacks in the top five. They now get back their best corner in Jimmy Smith who ranked 11th last year. Good luck passing on them now
• Last week I noted that whoever out of the Browns and Raiders played average special teams would have a big advantage. The Browns returned three punts for 10 yards, the Raiders returned five punts 98 yards, including a 49-yard return to start the Raiders in field goal range, and it could have been worse if Callaway’s fumble wasn’t overturned. A key factor if the Browns are to keep it close this week but it’s been an issue all year
• The Browns were inspired by the Raiders last week, capitulating a 14-point lead
• Mayfield had a top 12 QB performance on his first start but, beyond Nick Chubb’s unbelievable 105 yards and two TDs from three attempts (and only three snaps), his supporting cast underperformed
• The Ravens rushing attack is starting to get a little embarrassing now, Alex Collins is struggling massively and was basically benched when fumbling at the goal line last week, Buck Allen isn’t much better when not trying to punch it in. But the O-line are ranked second last in rush offense, even Marshal Yanda is struggling and Collins has ran nearly half of his carries in his direction

Denver Broncos (0) @ New York Jets (0)

• Sam Darnold was found out last week against the Jags defence, with only seven first downs and 167 passing yards
• The Jets now find themselves in the clear bottom three worst passing offenses, not a place they plan on staying with the number three overall pick and an OL which isn’t awful
• The Jets have no idea who their best three wide receivers are… Quincy Enunwa is the clear WR1, and they are sticking with the so far unproductive Robby Anderson at WR2 but, behind him, they have tried a whole mix of players. Last week it was clearly Jermaine Kearse
• The Broncos were probably expecting a little more out of Case Keenum, especially with the receiving options he has around him. He now has three touchdowns and six interceptions and hasn’t thrown a touchdown since week one, including against the weak defences of the Chiefs and Raiders
• The tag-team approach with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman is working well, combining for 5.5 yards per attempt and 17 rushes of 10+ yards so far this season

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Detroit Lions (+1)

• Randall Cobb missed out in last week’s win over the Bills, with Geronimo Allison taking his target share before going out of the game with a concussion
• This week it looks like neither will play; if that’s the case, Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be the guy
• Aaron Jones increased his snaps from 17 in Week 3 to 29 in Week 4. At this stage, its hard to predict if the backfield will stay shared with Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams, or if Jones starts to take over
• The Lions find themselves in a similar situation, with Kerryon Johnson the man of the moment because of his production in Week 3, but the reality is the backfield is still equally shared with Legarrette Blount and Theo Riddick
• Packers games have now gone over the total the last 15 in a row the week after a home game

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

• The Chiefs were pushed close by the Broncos last week, Patrick Mahomes only managing 6.8 yards per attempt
• The Jags are the best defence the Chiefs have played but are missing cornerback DJ Hayden again
• Travis Kelce has the highest target share (29%) of all tight receivers
• Leonard Fournette can’t stay healthy. The Jags tried to start him this week, but he reaggravated his hamstring, and chances are he stays out until they are more confident next time. This puts a lot of pressure on TJ Yeldon, who isn’t great between the tackles, and Blake Bortles, who is probably playing the worst defence he’s ever seen
• The Chiefs mix all their wide receivers in the slot, but there is a favourable match-up with Tyler Patmon, so they should play three WR sets as much as possible

Miami Dolphins (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6)

• Vontaze Burfict’s annual suspension is over, and the Bengals need him with the defence looking average at best against strong offenses over the last two weeks
• Ryan Tannehill graded the second worst starting QB performance of the year last Sunday, only propped up by Nathan Peterman in Week 1
• With Tyler Eifort out for the season, the obvious expectation is a step up for Tyler Kroft, but there is a good chance CJ Uzomah is the guy, running three times as many routes as Kroft through four weeks
• Miami have been dreadful at rushing so far, mostly caused by poor OL play. Frank Gore continues to have more success than Kenyan Drake
• It’s not clear who will be playing at running back for the Bengals this week, as Joe Mixon may return

New York Giants (+6) @ Carolina Panthers (-6)

• The Giants could do with Eli Apple and Olivier Vernon coming back to support their poor defence
• Panthers are coming off the bye, but it may not offer much advantage, they are 5-5 off a bye in their last 10
• Both teams are generally poor at pass rush, there should be no excuse for poor performance by either QB
• Saquon Barkley has avoided 10 tackles from 27 receptions, only one fewer than Alvin Kamara

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) @ Buffalo Bills (+5.5)

• Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro (possibly the toughest man alive) left the game in a relaxed manner with a visibly dislocated elbow, he’s likely to miss a couple of weeks
• Josh Allen had as many first downs as sacks (7) from his 12 drives, reaching field goal range twice before throwing an interception and fumbling
• The Bills might play better if he could get his first down:sack ratio up a little from 2:1, sacked more times than any other QB so far
• Even when we doesn’t get sacked, he is dreadful under pressure, with 5 completions from 32 attempts
• If the game goes the Titans way, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry

Oakland Raiders (+5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

• The Chargers get Corey Liuget back from suspension which should improve the currently ranked 22th rush defence
• LA are generally patchy on defence, with some players significantly underperforming. They do have more bright spots than Oakland though, who are dreadful
• Marshawn Lynch continues to be the go to guy in the backfield for the Raiders, increasing his backfield touches share from 40% in Week 1 to 72% in Week 4, supported mostly by Jalen Richard. Doug Martin may be done
• Lynch deserves to be the guy as well, currently ranked the best running back (of the 28 backs with 40+ carries) and having avoided 20 tackles so far

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

• Arizona have won the last six match-ups
• The only team with a donut in the win column, the Arizona Cardinals, are averaging 9.25 points per game, it’s tough to win games like that
• Washington have run more offensive plays than the Cardinals, even though they have played one fewer game
• Josh Rosen had a solid performance in the loss to Seattle last week, its likely however that he is going to struggle against stronger defences, especially teams with good pass rush. That isn’t this week though, as there isn’t much to worry about in the 49ers defence.
• Alfred Morris may be disappearing before our eyes, as Matt Breida is currently taking over the backfield, handling 73% of snaps last week

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+7.5)

• Seattle lose Will Dissly to a torn patellar tendon for the year (and possibly beyond), which should give more opportunity to Nick Vannett
• Pro-bowl safety Earl Thomas broke his tibia and will be fit just in time to leave Seattle in free agency. KJ Wright is questionable, if he doesn’t play then there are zero members of the legion of boom in attendance
• Mychal Kendricks is now suspended indefinitely
• With Chris Carson struggling with a hip injury, Mike Davis was the bell cow back last week. It will likely be the same this week if Carson doesn’t go
• As was maybe expected, with Aqib Talib out, Same Shields was targeted a lot last week, giving up 162 yards in the air and two missed tackles

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

• Adam Thielen has the highest percentage target share (20%) of any wide receiver on any team
• The Eagles need some stability at wide receiver, they may get that now with Alshon Jeffery fit and playing
• The Vikings have the highest pass:rush ratio of any team this season (72% pass), and the Eagles corner backs have been shaky at times this year
• The Eagles have the most experienced OL in the league by snaps this year, and it shows, the Rams are the only other team in the top 10 for both pass and rush blocking

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ Houston Texans (-3.5)

• Will Fuller left last week’s game with a hamstring injury (again?), and the offence looks much more threatening if he plays because of his deep threat
• David Irving had September off again this year but is back this week for the Cowboys and may see some pass rush success with offensive lines worried about Demarcus Lawrence
• Ezekiel Elliot has over 50% of the offensive touches for the Cowboys so far but, for the first time, they gave a significant number of carries to Rod Smith last week (20%)
• The Texans are the worst team so far against the tight end, Geoff Swaim has run more than three times as many routes as all the other Cowboys tight ends combined

Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints -6.5)

• Washington are one of the worst recent teams coming off a bye, with a 3-5 record in their last eight, underperforming the spread by an average seven points and only covering the spread 25% of the time
• Alvin Kamara has been very good over four games, and has 78% of the backfield touches so far this season, but he is a different animal with Mark Ingram at his side, and Ingram comes back from suspension this week
• With Ingram taking a chunk of the carries, Kamara stays fresh for the catches out of the backfield
• Washington have the lowest pass:rush ratio of any team this season (51% rush), while the Saints have a top five unit at stopping the rush

GRIDIRON BETS OF THE WEEK

Green Bay (-1) OVER Detroit
Tennessee (-3.5) OVER Buffalo
Baltimore (-3.5) OVER Cleveland

ODDS: 7/1

Cincinnati to WIN
Los Angeles Rams to WIN
Carolina to have 2+ sacks vs New York Giants

ODDS: 7/4

(odds correct at the time of publishing)

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