Like a Cody Parkey field goal attempt, we were so close, but so far away. Three people managed to call three out of four games correctly here on the Pick Six column on Wild Card Weekend. But not one person managed to get all four. Meanwhile, two people failed to get a single game right.

It’s been that kind of season. Does the unpredictably carry on right through the playoffs, or can we finally expect some order here in the divisional round?

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday, 9.35pm GMT)

Am I tied to the Colts regardless now? Could I abandon them even if I wanted to? I stuck my neck out by picking them in preseason to make the playoffs, while others backed them to finish dead last in the standings. I picked them again on the road in Houston last week. That was the only game I called correctly on Wild Card weekend.

This, though, is a whole different level. The Chiefs are the team I have most enjoyed watching this year. Where else do you get no-look passes…

No look, no problem.

Patrick Mahomes challenge > #BirdBoxChallenge
(Do not attempt at home) pic.twitter.com/Dk6UyeGSV0

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 9, 2019

…wrong hand passes…

,,,and even one-yard passes that somehow put a whole defence on tilt? Patrick Mahomes is the truth. He’s also the only quarterback who threw more touchdowns than Andrew Luck this season.

But the Colts match up well. They have a solid ground game which should allow them to build long drives against opponents who ranked 31st against the run. They protect Andrew Luck exceptionally well – he was sacked on a league-low 2.7% of dropbacks – suggesting that they have at least a puncher’s chance of keeping the NFL’s joint-most prolific pass rush at bay. And, look, Luck is one of very few who could hang with Mahomes in a shootout if it comes to that – especially if Eric Berry, who missed practice on Wednesday, is below 100% at safety for Kansas City.

Or maybe I’m just being influenced by the Chiefs’ habit of tripping up too easily at this time of year. This is a team that has lost 11 of its last 12 playoff games (including one, against Indianapolis, that it led by 28 points in the third quarter) fronted by a head coach with an 11-13 postseason record. One that has an inexplicably consistent track record of poor kicking in knockout games.

Colts win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Colts to win, Andrew Luck & Patrick Mahomes 300+ passing yards each, Eric Ebron to score a TD….14/1

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 1.15am GMT)

Seattle thought they could run the ball on Dallas (and, to be fair, so did I). They even continued to believe it even when the evidence told them otherwise on Wild Card weekend…

You should have known entering this game Dallas was #5 vs the run & #16 vs the pass YTD.

You should have known that the Dallas pass defense ranked #31 in success rate the last month of the season.

But even if you did NO PREP to understand Dallas, how do you not adjust in-game?

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 6, 2019

The Rams, too, are a team that leans heavily on its ground game. Todd Gurley averaged just shy of 90 yards rushing per game this season, yet in the Rams’ three defeats that number fell to below 50. Perhaps even more telling is how few carries he got in those games: 13 against New Orleans, 12 against Philadelphia and just 11 against Chicago.

Those numbers matter because the Rams’ offence is at its best when it can use the threat of Gurley to set up the play-action. Sean McVay and the Rams’ coaching staff are less likely to keep going back to the well regardless, as Seattle did last week, if the running game isn’t getting it done. But they would also become less likely to win as a result – and especially against opponents for whom Zeke Elliott could play a key role in controlling the clock.

On paper, I like this match-up for Dallas: and especially with Gurley only just back from the knee injury that has sidelined him since Week 15. If he struggles like Chris Carson et al did last week, the Rams could find themselves in trouble. But the swing factor for me here was McVay: a coach whom I expect to have devised more creative ways to attack a defence than Brian Schottenheimer managed – especially coming off a bye.

Rams win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Rams to win, Todd Gurley & Ezekiel Elliott 100+ rushing yards each, Todd Gurley & Ezekiel Elliott to both score TDs….8/1

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (Sunday, 6.05pm GMT)

It feels faintly absurd to me that Philip Rivers has never won a game against Tom Brady. He has delivered consistent excellence for 13 years now (Rivers was drafted in 2004 but did not become a starter until two years later), establishing himself as one of the foremost quarterbacks of a generation. Only seven players have thrown for more yards in NFL history. Only five have more passing touchdowns.

Brady sits ahead of him in both categories but still, you might have thought at least one of their seven career head-to-heads could break Rivers’ way. In 2006-07, the Chargers went 14-2 and claimed the AFC’s #1 seed – only to then lose 24-21 to the Patriots in a divisional playoff game where both quarterbacks performed poorly. One year later, hopes of revenge were dashed when Rivers and star running back LaDanian Tomlinson sustained knee injuries ahead of the AFC title game. The quarterback played all four quarters anyway, with a torn ACL, but could not engineer a miracle.

So why do I find myself thinking he could break the streak here? The Patriots have not lost a home game since October 2017. Yet they did lose two of their last four regular season games overall, and three of their final seven. Is Tom Brady carrying a knee injury? Are his years finally catching up to him (even if only in tiny increments)?

Brady’s knee bent on his catch vs Titans pic.twitter.com/U5nyuRaowt

— Joe Giza (@JoeGiza) December 19, 2018

Perhaps it’s even more subtle than that. Watching the Patriots through the final few weeks of the season, something just felt a little ‘off’. This is the time of year when Brady and company tend to make critics look foolish but, to me, this feels like a window of opportunity for Rivers to finally get one over on his peer: especially if LA’s defensive co-ordinator, Gus Bradley, can devise a scheme as effective as the seven-DB formations he deployed against Baltimore.

Chargers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Chargers to win, both teams to score points in every quarter….20/1

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday 9.40pm GMT)

The Eagles’ title defence looked like it was just about done when they were blown out 48-7 by New Orleans on 18 November. Since then, though, they have won seven out of eight (with the lone defeat, on the road against Dallas, coming in overtime).

Nick Foles cited that mauling by the Saints as a turning point, saying it brought the team closer. Of course, he was only watching from the sidelines at the time. His knack for producing late-season magic has become the central storyline in Philadelphia, and the idea that he could once again carry the Eagles to a Super Bowl after replacing the injured Carson Wentz is an appealing narrative.

Fans might also draw encouragement from the Chargers’ win over Baltimore last week, just a fortnight after the Ravens had won in LA. Beating a team once does not mean that you will do it again – even in the case of a blowout. The Times-Picayune newspaper in New Orleans notes that there have been 16 playoff games since the merger that were rematches of regular season games decided by 30+ points. The team that won first time around were only 10-6 when it mattered.

So perhaps that Nick Foles late season magic does give the Eagles a shot. But let’s not forget that Drew Brees has a few tricks up his own sleeve. His playoff record at the Superdome is a perfect 5-0, and he has thrown for 12 touchdowns against just a single interception in that run. He should have better protection than he got down the stretch in the regular season, with left tackle Terron Armstead back in practice this week after missing six of the final seven games.

Saints win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Saints to win, Drew Brees 300+ passing yards, Michael Thomas 100+ receiving yards….11/4

Or perhaps you fancy one of these:

Colts, Rams, Chargers & Saints to all win….11/1
Colts & Rams both to win, all 4 Saturday starting QBs 200+ passing yards….5/1
Chargers & Saints both to win, each of the 4 Sunday teams to score 2+ TDs & 1+ FGs….8/1

Think you can pick a winner? How about all four? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

OVERALL PLAYOFF STANDINGS

3 – AALIPOUR1, MATTHEW SHERRY, THOM OWEN
2 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN, JROSCOW, KEVIN JACKSON, OWEN MARSDEN
1 – GEOFFREY MANBOOB, PAOLO BANDINI, SCAMPTON, WEST COAST OFFENSE
0 – BEN JOHNSON, SOXINOX