Washington safety DJ Swearinger had some harsh words for his team after their Thanksgiving defeat to Dallas. “You got to do the simple things right,” he railed. “If you don’t do the simple things right, you’re going to get embarrassed on national TV. That’s why we don’t get respect … We don’t do the simple sh*t right. We do the simple sh*t right, I guarantee you we get respect.”

That’s how it works here on the SkyBet Pick Six, too. Well, maybe not the bit about getting embarrassed on national TV. Or the bit about respect, really, either. I mean, we’re not going to judge you as people based on your ability to predict NFL games. But a third consecutive week with no perfect scores does mean no shout-outs up here in the article.

I know that hurts enough. Let’s see if we can get back on track in Week 12.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 6pm GMT)

Barely three weeks after he was fired as head coach of the Browns, Hue Jackson gets his crack at revenge. Working as assistant to Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati, can his insight give the Bengals an edge? It really ought to, and yet I’m not sure.

Cleveland’s offence has looked very different since Jackson and co-ordinator Todd Haley got the boot. More specifically, it has looked better. Under interim play-caller Freddie Kitchens, there has been a clear emphasis on making sure Baker Mayfield gets the ball out quicker. The result has been a significant improvement in the rookie quarterback’s stat-line.

#Browns offense under Freddie Kitchens has looked to get the ball out early. Mayfield’s numbers/rank:

WK 3-8: 2.56 secs avg time to att. (23rd) & 88.3 passer rating when <2.5 secs (25th)

WK 9-10: 2.26 secs avg. time to att. (3rd) & 128.4 passer rating when <2.5 secs (7th)

— PFF CLE Browns (@PFF_Browns) November 21, 2018

Mayfield has completed 74.2% of his passes over the past two games and, whilst it is fair to note that he has not been up against the toughest of defences, he will not be this Sunday either. The Bengals rank 31st in the league against the pass. True, they have won seven straight head-to-heads against the Browns. But they have lost four of their past five games this season.

Browns win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Browns to win, Nick Chubb 100+ rushing yards, Chubb and joe Mixon to both score TDs….11/1

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6pm GMT)

Who could ever have imagined that these teams would square off in late November with identical records? A month into the season, Jacksonville were 3-1 and had already avenged their 2017 AFC title game defeat to New England. Buffalo were 1-3, having suffered a 47-3 humiliation in Baltimore and been shut out by the Packers.

And yet, here we are. It feels as though there is not much further for the Jaguars to sink after six consecutive defeats but, despite his protests to the contrary, you have to believe that Bills quarterback Josh Allen would enjoy stuffing some words back down the throat of Jalen Ramsey, who described him as ‘trash’ during an interview with GQ in preseason.

Unfortunately, it is the rookie’s presence in the line-up that has me leaning against Buffalo. The Bills’ offence looked drastically improved with Matt Barkley behind centre – a quarterback who, despite a great many limitations, has played long enough in this league to make confident adjustments at the line. With a view to the long-term, it does make sense to get Allen back in now that he has recovered from his shoulder injury but, in the short-term, it makes this team weaker.

Jaguars win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Jaguars to win, Leonard Fournette and Jags D/ST to both score TDs….8/1

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 6pm GMT)

Here we go again. Jameis Winston is back at quarterback for the Buccaneers, less than a month after he was benched for throwing four interceptions against Cincinnati.

Does it make sense to have him back taking the snaps? Of course. Ryan Fitzpatrick has regressed, as he typically does, and so there could be little justification for continuing to start a 35-year-old journeyman over a 24-year-old former first-round pick. But did we see anything from Winston’s previous starts this season to suggest that he will cure all that ails this team? Certainly not.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are feeling a bit more optimistic about their quarterback situation again after consecutive strong performances from Nick Mullens. It’s still early to be offering any serious evaluation of a player preparing for his third professional start. But this Buccaneers defence has only produced one interception all season, and has been missing a number of defensive starters in practice this week.

A very long list of injuries Wednesday for the Bucs. Lavonte David and Justin Evans are still not practicing… https://t.co/dJFppy5llc pic.twitter.com/0yoyf3JrfJ

— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) November 21, 2018

49ers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: 49ers to win, Nick Mullens 2+ passing TDs, Jameis Winston 1+ INTs….4/1

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (Sunday 6pm GMT)

Appointments with the Seahawks have rarely gone well for Cam Newton. He has won just two out of seven career games against Seattle, throwing for an average of 185 yards. Across five regular season meetings, his average passer rating has been a measly 69.8.

Does Pete Carroll have his number? Or was it the Legion of Boom? The Seahawks are not terrible on defence this year – statistically, they sit quite comfortably in the middle of the pack – but they are certainly not the force they were with Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman. Newton, meanwhile, is producing some of the best numbers of his career, certainly from an accuracy standpoint, under Norv Turner.

I expect him to do better than he has against Seattle in the past. The bigger question is whether a defence that was uncharacteristically poor against the run last week – allowing 87 yards to Kerryon Johnson on 15 carries – can contain the league’s #1-ranked rushing attack. I’m not as confident as I would like to be, but the Panthers’ string of 10 consecutive home wins was the deciding factor on this pick.

Panthers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Panthers to win, Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton to both score TDs ….4/1

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (Sunday 9.25pm GMT)

The Steelers have won six on the bounce, with their average margin of victory sitting at a healthy 14.7 points. So why should they be troubled by a trip to face a 4-6 team that hasn’t won at home since week two?

Well, there’s the fact that the Broncos just beat a good Chargers team on the road for starters. And, even in defeat, Denver have rarely been blown away this season. They lost to the Rams by three points at Mile High, to the Chiefs by four and the Texans by two. Undrafted rookie running back Phillip Lindsay is producing 5.5 yards per carry while Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are about as good of an edge-rushing tandem as you’ll find anywhere in the league.

That last thought is ominous for a Steelers team that is running out of bodies at right tackle, with Matt Feiler suffering a pectoral injury against Jacksonville and the man he replaced, Marcus Gilbert, still working his way back from a knee complaint. If neither of them can go, Pittsburgh may be forced to start the rookie Chuks Okorafor, who has so far played mostly at tight end.

The Steelers have only allowed Ben Roethlisberger to be sacked five times so far in this winning stretch, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. But this certainly won’t be as easy as it looks on paper.

Steelers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Steelers to win, 50+ total points, James Conner to score 2+ TDs and Antonio Brown to score 1+ TDs….7/1

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (Monday 1.20am GMT)

Aaron Rodgers still believes. The Packers quarterback suggested in the wake of defeat to Seattle that his team only needs ‘one galvanising moment’ to turn the season around. This would be a fine place to get it, against division rivals who sit one game ahead in the NFC Wild Card race. But a loss would come pretty close to ending Green Bay’s playoff hopes for the year.

They were unfortunate not to win at home to Minnesota in September, with even Vikings defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson arguing that officials had been wrong to award a game-changing roughing the passer penalty against Clay Matthews late in the fourth quarter. Injuries and trades, though, have weakened them on defence since.

Mike Daniels, who had five pressures of Kirk Cousins in week two, is out with a foot injury. Four defensive backs are listed as questionable or worse to play this weekend. The run defence ranks 26th in the league. And yet, they still have enough pass rush to vex a Minnesota team that has done a poor job of protecting Kirk Cousins, and which has been too quick to abandon the run. Plus, it’s Rodgers, now in full desperation mode.

Packers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Packers to win, Kirk Cousins 300+ passing yards and 1+ INTs….11/2

Or perhaps you fancy one of these:

5+ of Browns, Jaguars, 49ers, Panthers, Steelers and Packers to Win….8/1
Browns, Jaguars, 49ers, Panthers, Steelers and Packers All To Win….50/1
Browns, Jaguars, 49ers, Panthers, Steelers and Packers 20+ points each….11/2

Think you can pick a winner? How about all six? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

OVERALL STANDINGS

37 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
34 – K.JACKSON
33 – OWEN MARSDEN, THOM OWEN
32 – JROSCOW, PAOLO BANDINI
31 – GAZM013
27 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN, JOHN O’GORMAN
25 – AALIPOUR1
24 – POMPEYDINO
23 – JAKE BURTON
20 – MATTHEW SHERRY
14 – JAYESH PATEL, JOSH PEACOCK, TED BOVIS
11 – SCAMPTON
9 – ROB ALLEN
5 – STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, ITSMILKS, KPERSON LEEDER, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – ANDYJET88 CHARLESWALFORD, CRAGGLES, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, LEE JELF, LEONPERRY, LEWIS, MORN01, PETER MORAN
2 – CHRISTIE PEARSON, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ROBLAWTON