Pick Six: Week 14
This is the time of year when Fantasy NFL dreams fall apart. Perhaps you missed the playoffs, or perhaps you are simply trying to work out how to win a semi-final without AJ Green or Emmanuel Sanders. In either case, you know in your heart that it’s already over.
The same is not true here on the SkyBet Pick Six. Right to the final weekend, you have a chance to join the select few (more precisely: two) who have successfully called a full round of games correctly. WEST COAST OFFENSE continues to lead our overall standings, but you can join them and JROSCOW in glory simply by predicting the following games correctly:
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
The Panthers have had Cam Newton on a reduced throwing schedule in practice since late October, as they seek to manage the soreness in his surgically-repaired right shoulder. For a long time, that strategy seemed to be working out just fine. From weeks seven to 12, he went six consecutive games with a passer rating above 100.
Against the Buccaneers last Sunday, however, Newton threw four interceptions – at times showing a troubling level of inaccuracy. He was subbed off for the team’s end-of-game Hail Mary attempt, too. Barring any major surprises, Newton will start against Cleveland on Sunday but evasive comments from coaches regarding the severity of his injury, combined with the player himself leaving open the possibility of further surgery, can hardly reassure us that all is well.
Avoiding interceptions this Sunday may be paramount. Carolina have a minus-seven turnover margin during their current four-game losing streak. It was a similar story for Cleveland in their defeat to Houston, where Baker Mayfield was intercepted three times and Antonio Callaway lost a fumble. Neither of those, though, is showing signs of a more serious underlying injury concern.
Browns win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Browns to win, Nick Chubb to score 2+ TDs, Cam Newton 1+ INT….15/2
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
Even in a season of unexpected twists and turns, it was quite a surprise to see the Colts get shut out by a Jacksonville team that had lost seven games on the bounce. At 6-6, Indianapolis still have a path to the postseason, but it is narrowing. A loss here would leave them needing a miracle. A win would not only keep them in the Wild Card hunt but also put the AFC South title back in play.
The concern, for me, relates to their offensive line. For so much of this season, it has been a strength, allowing Andrew Luck to go five consecutive games without a sack between weeks six and 11 (they had a bye in week nine). It is no accident that the Colts won four of those.
But since centre Ryan Kelly went down with a knee injury in late November, things have started to look a bit less certain. Luck’s sack-free run was ended in a tight win over Miami, and the Jaguars got to him three times as they ended Indy’s winning streak – generating pressure that forced errors on more plays besides. It does not feel like the ideal moment for the Colts to run into JJ Watt.
Texans win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Texans to win, Deandre Hopkins 100+ receiving yards & to score a TD, JJ Watt 1+ Sack….15/2
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
The NFL’s top-scoring offence takes on its stingiest defence. Baltimore give up an average of just 17.8 points per game, yet that number, to me, feels misleading. They have produced brilliant defensive performances at times – shutting out the Titans and restricting Pittsburgh to 14 points at Heinz Field. But they were mauled for 30+ points by both the Bengals and Panthers.
More than the defence itself, what makes me believe in this team is the recent effectiveness of the offence in taking control of a game. In three games since Lamar Jackson stepped in at quarterback, the Ravens have averaged 37-and-a-half minutes of possession per game. In effect, they have held the ball for a full quarter more than each opponent.
It was not just the fact that Baltimore rushed for a combined 207 yards against the Falcons last week that caught the eye, but the fact that their longest single run went for 16 yards. There is no reliance here on the big play. They are, admittedly, yet to face an elite defence with Jackson behind centre, but they will not find one at Arrowhead on Sunday, either.
The Chiefs struggled to get their own running game going following the release of Kareem Hunt last week, and I find it very plausible that they will lose the time of possession battle. The question is whether that matters to a team as explosive as Kansas City. They have only held the ball longer than their opponents in four out of 12 games this season. And yet, they are 10-2.
Chiefs win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Chiefs to Win, Patrick Mahomes 300+ passing yards, Tyreek Hill to score 2+ TDs….14/1
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 9.25pm GMT)
Philly have done what was necessary the past two weeks, keeping their season alive with consecutive wins over division rivals. A further win here, though, is essential. The Eagles’ remaining schedule looks daunting, with road trips to face Washington and the Rams, as well as a home game against a Houston team that hasn’t lost since September.
They do have a good record at AT&T Stadium, winning on six of their past eight visits. But Philadelphia lost at home to the Cowboys a month ago and have displayed some worrying trends since. They ranked second in the league against the run before Ezekiel Elliott gouged them for 151 yards. The Eagles then allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of the next two games, before barely breaking the sequence on Monday night, when they held Adrian Peterson to 98.
The Cowboys’ offensive line has been withered by injury and let Dak Prescott get sacked seven times against the Saints. But that unit is nevertheless healthier than it was when these teams last met. Crucially, the whole Dallas team has also had extra time to rest up after playing on Thursday night, whereas Philadelphia are operating on a short week.
Cowboys win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Cowboys to win, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper & Zach Ertz all to score TDs,….8/1
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (Monday, 1.20am GMT)
Is Mitch Trubisky sure he wants to get back out on the field this weekend? The Bears quarterback was back at practice on Wednesday after two weeks out with a shoulder injury. He returns just in time to face a Rams defence for which Aaron Donald has been in monstrous form, with 12-and-a-half sacks in the past six games alone. He had two against the Lions last Sunday, a third cancelled out by a penalty, and forced a fumble as well.
The Bears’ pass protection has been above-average this season and James Daniels, the left guard who should line up against Donald most often, is yet to give up a sack. Still, this is a different order of challenge. Chicago are not helped here by an inefficient running game that poses an insufficient threat to discourage Donald and Ndamukong Suh from getting after the quarterback.
It might be a critical factor. The Bears rush the passer about as well as anyone, but LA can answer with the relentless effectiveness of Todd Gurley on the ground. As the weather tilts towards freezing in Chicago, having a ground game to lean on feels even more important.
Rams win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Rams to win, Todd Gurley 150+ scrimmage yards & to score 2+ TDs….7/1
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (Tuesday, 1.35am GMT)
The Vikings are running out of time to show that they can beat a good team. None of their six wins so far this season have come against opponents that currently hold a winning record. Kirk Cousins’ critics are already waiting in the wings, ready to remind you that he went 4-19 in Washington against sides who finished above .500.
At 6-5-1, Minnesota cannot afford another misstep. Yet they were well beaten in New England by a Patriots team against whom I thought they matched up well. I could present a similar case here: observing that Seattle’s improvement has been founded on a solid running game (Russell Wilson has only thrown for over 300 yards once all season). The Vikings rank fifth against the run, and the Seahawks have just lost their best offensive lineman, DJ Fluker, to injury.
But the Vikings were so far below what I thought they could be last weekend, that it’s hard to have faith. Their own head coach is publicly criticising the balance of their play calling. Oh, and going from one coast to the other for successive road games against good teams is no small thing.
Seahawks win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Seahawks to win, Kirk Cousins 300+ passing yards, Adam Thielen 100+ rec yards….3/1
Or perhaps you fancy one of these:
Browns, Texans, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams & Seahawks ALL to Win….14/1
5+ of Browns, Texans, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams & Seahawks to Win….2/1
Browns, Texans, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams & Seahawks 20+ Points Each….9/4
Think you can pick a winner? How about all six? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…
OVERALL STANDINGS
43 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
42 – K.JACKSON
41 – OWEN MARSDEN
39 – JROSCOW
38 – PAOLO BANDINI
37 – GAZM013, THOM OWEN
33 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN, JOHN O’GORMAN,
31 – POMPEYDINO
30 – AALIPOUR1
29 – JAKE BURTON
20 – MATTHEW SHERRY
19 – JAYESH PATEL
18 – JOSH PEACOCK
15 – SCAMPTON
14 – TED BOVIS
13 – ROB ALLEN
5 – STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, ITSMILKS, KPERSON, LEEDER, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, CRAGGLES, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, LEE JELF, LEONPERRY, LEWIS, MORN01, PETER MORAN
2 – BARRY MCNEIL, CHRISTIE PEARSON, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ROBLAWTON
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Eagles (heart over head)
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Cleveland
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Panthers
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Eagles
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Let’s go 6/6 this week!!
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Need a BIG weekend…
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Cowboys (sorry Dallas!)
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