Pick Six: Week 16
Two weeks to go in the regular season and still so much hangs in the balance. The Chiefs and Chargers do not know if they will be playing a road game on Wild Card weekend or enjoying homefield advantage through the playoffs. The Patriots could technically still miss the playoffs. The Browns could yet get in.
Well, OK, that last one requires a tie so it’s probably not happening. Then again, who would have anticipated that our Pick Six title race could be upended by a week in which our leader failed to make a single correct prediction? KEVIN JACKSON took full advantage of WEST COAST OFFENSE’s slip to move into first place.
I will apologise here to those who were caught off guard by my inclusion of a Saturday game in last week’s selection. There shall be no more of those until the playoffs. Full standings at the bottom of this column, but for now here are this week’s games…
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
The Packers could have shut Aaron Rodgers down early, with the team out of playoff contention and the quarterback pulling his groin during last week’s defeat to the Bears. It seems he rejected that idea out of hand. Perhaps he just wants to end the season on a brighter note after a poor game against Chicago, when he completed just 25 of 42 passing attempts and delivered some throws a long way off target.
Was that a consequence of injury or structural issues on offence for a team that let his favourite receiver go in the offseason and recently fired its head coach? It is telling, for me, that Rodgers was still eight of 12 for 119 yards when throwing to Davante Adams.
Regardless, the fact remains that we ought to keep our expectations in check for a team that has now also lost running back Aaron Jones. The Packers are already 0-7 on the road. Still, I find it hard to pick a rookie quarterback over Rodgers – even if Sam Darnold has been playing very well.
Packers win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Packers to win, Davante Adams 100+ receiving yards, Sam Darnold 1+ interceptions….9/2
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
This could be another painful afternoon for DeShaun Watson. Sacked 52 times through 14 games –the most of any quarterback in the league – he now lines up against Michael Bennett and Fletcher Cox.
If the Eagles’ coaches have been paying attention, moreover, they might have noticed that three successive opponents have wrought havoc on this Houston offence by blitzing with defensive backs. Underwhelming offensive line play has made it possible for opponents to defend the run effectively without stacking the box, leaving more players free to potentially rush the passer. That situation is only likely to be exacerbated by Lamar Miller’s ankle injury.
Despite all the pressure on Watson, however, Houston have found ways to win. That is in great part because the quarterback does such a good job of protecting the ball. He has been turnover-free in six of his last eight games, and the Texans have won seven of them.
Texans win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Texans to win, DeAndre Hopkins to score a TD, JJ Watt 1+ sacks….4/1
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
The Dolphins are punching far above their weight in 2018. They have generated the fourth-fewest offensive yards of any team in the NFL, and have given up the third-most, yet somehow have found their way to a 7-7 record, with wins over Chicago and New England.
Their Floridian neighbours are a better team on paper. Jacksonville’s defence, despite not hitting last season’s heights, still ranks sixth in the NFL. Yet they allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 238 yards on 17 carries in a blowout defeat to the Titans, and just served Josh Johnson with his first-ever win as a starting NFL quarterback, at the age of 32.
The Jags have only fallen further since putting Cody Kessler in for Blake Bortles. The bar was not high to begin with…
Dolphins win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Dolphins to win, under 38.5 total points, Cody Kessler 1+ interceptions….5/1
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 9.25pm GMT)
The Saints own the best record in the NFL and average more than 39 points per game at home. Pittsburgh’s last two road games have ended in defeat to Denver and Oakland. This ought to be a non-contest, right?
Maybe. Then again, we might observe that New Orleans have quietly failed to score a first-half touchdown in any of their past three games. That might be because their offensive line is coming apart at the seams. Right guard Larry Warford was the only starter not to earn a mention on this week’s injury reports.
Worrying stuff for a team whose recovery time has been trimmed by playing on Monday night. The counterpoint, however, is that their defence is on fire. New Orleans have given up the fewest points in the league since Week 10 (despite playing a game more than some others) and are joint-first with 14 takeaways in that stretch as well.
Saints win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Saints to win, Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara to both score TDs, Ben Roethlisberger 300+ passing yards….9/2
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks (Monday, 1.20am GMT)
It is easy to catastrophise the Chiefs’ situation right now. A team that once appeared to be running away with the AFC West has lost two of its last four games, and with it the division lead. Kareem Hunt is off the roster, Sammy Watkins is injured and Tyreek Hill just had his worst game of the season. Now they travel to Seattle’s famously unconquerable CenturyLink Field.
Only, the Seahawks have lost twice there already this season. They just got beaten on the road by San Francisco, for whom Nick Mullens – a less talented quarterback, it’s safe to say, than Patrick Mahomes – completed 20 of 29 passes for 275 yards and a score with no interceptions.
Yes, Seattle match up well on paper. The league leaders in rushing yardage should move the ball pretty easily against a Kansas City team that has given up more than 125 yards per game on the ground. But the Chiefs will also have Eric Berry on the field for more of this game after he played only the first-half last week against the Chargers. It is no coincidence that 22 of LA’s 29 points came after he had left the field.
Chiefs win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Chiefs to win, Chris Carson and Travis Kelce both to score TDs, 55+ total points….6/1
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (Tuesday, 1.15am GMT)
Philip Lindsay just became the first undrafted offensive player to be named to a Pro Bowl in their rookie season. He might be a rare bright spot for Denver this season, but that is still better than none. Oakland, for only the second time in their history, failed to send any players to the all-star game whatsoever.
Do the Raiders at least have a little fight left in them? We are only a fortnight removed from their upset win over Pittsburgh, but they were soundly beaten last week by a Cincinnati team with Jeff Driskel at quarterback and no healthy receivers.
Oakland’s own injury problems continue to mount, with guard Gabe Jackson the latest offensive lineman to be added to the injured reserve list. TJ Clemmings and Jon Feliciano are already there. Kelechi Osemele is struggling at the other guard spot, and Chaz Green marked his first start last week by giving up three sacks to Geno Atkins. It all spells trouble against a team whose one bright spot beyond Lindsay has been an excellent pass rush.
Broncos win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Broncos to win, Von Miller & Bradley Chubb 1+ sacks each, Philip Lindsay to score a TD….6/1
Or perhaps you fancy one of these:
Packers, Texans, Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs and Broncos ALL to Win….20/1
5+ of Packers, Texans, Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs and Broncos to Win….7/2
Think you can pick a winner? How about all six? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…
OVERALL STANDINGS
49 – KEVIN JACKSON
47 – PAOLO BANDINI, WEST COAST OFFENSE
46 – JROSCOW, OWEN MARSDEN
44 – GAZM013
41 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN, JOHN O’GORMAN, THOM OWEN
36 – AALIPOUR1
35 – POMPEYDINO
34 – JAKE BURTON
22 – JOSH PEACOCK
20 – MATTHEW SHERRY
19 – JAYESH PATEL
15 – SCAMPTON
14 – TED BOVIS
13 – ROB ALLEN
5 – STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, ITSMILKS, KPERSON, LEEDER, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, CRAGGLES, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, LEE JELF, LEONPERRY, LEWIS, MORN01, PETER MORAN
2 – BARRY MCNEIL, CHRISTIE PEARSON, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ROBLAWTON
Comments 10
Packers
Texans
Dolphins
Saints
Chiefs
Broncos
Jets
Texans
Dolphins
Saints
Chiefs
Broncos
PACKERS
EAGLES
JAGUARS
SAINTS
CHIEFS
BRONCOS
Packers
Eagles
Jaguars
Saints
Seahawks
Broncos
Merry Christmas Paolo and fellow Pick Sixers….. hoping the above isn’t too big a present for you all!
Green Bay
Houston
Miami
New Orleans
Kansas City
Oakland
Jets
Texans
Dolphins
Saints
Seahawks
Raiders
Thanks Paolo….
Jets
Texans
Dolphins
Saints
Seahawks
Raiders
Packers
Texans (don’t want to jinx the Eagles)
Dolphins
Saints
Seahawks
Broncos
Jets
Eagles
Dolphins
Saints
Chiefs
Raiders
Packers
Texans
Dolphins
Saints
Chiefs
Broncos