So here it is: the final week of the NFL’s regular season. But not, I am pleased to report, the final week of the Pick Six contest. Our predictions game will press on right through the playoffs, though fear not: we’ll still crown a regular season champ first.

KEVIN JACKSON holds first place heading into Week 17. A two-point lead feels robust, but a perfect week from any of the chasing pack could still change a great deal. Full standings at the bottom of the column. But first, here’s the match-ups you need to call.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 6pm GMT)

Are we really only two games removed from the Miami Miracle? The Dolphins were dismal against Jacksonville last week: scarcely recognisable from the team that defied New England. Head coach Adam Gase called the offence “brutal to watch”. Given that they are now out of playoff contention, it seems a safe bet that most of you won’t be tuning in on Sunday.

But look, we’ve got to get six games from somewhere, and with so much of the playoff seeding already set, there aren’t many tight ones to choose from. Gase told reporters this week that “I don’t need to lobby for my job”, but another performance as abject as the last one might yet cost him it.

The Dolphins have been especially bad on the road: losing six straight outside of Miami by an average margin of more than two touchdowns. The Bills are a modest team who couldn’t pull off a win of their own against New England, but they do at least have a bit of enthusiasm behind them now with Josh Allen – who had a big game against Miami, even in defeat, at the start of the month.

Bills win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Bills to win, Josh Allen 200+ passing yards & 50+ rushing yards….9/2

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (Sunday, 6pm GMT)

Dallas are headed to the playoffs as NFC East champions. New York sit bottom of the division with a 5-10 record. So why are the Giants giving up six points in the handicap betting market? Probably because they can be trusted to try to win. Dallas are locked into the NFC’s fourth seed, meaning they have nothing to gain from beating the Giants and everything to lose if a key player gets hurt.

Only, here’s the thing: owner Jerry Jones insists the first-string will play. Head coach Jason Garrett concurs. Ezekiel Elliott says Dallas “can’t afford to take a week off,” and frankly there’s a solid argument that they need their stars out there so they can get some fine-tuning in ahead of the postseason. Zeke hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in either of his past two games, and Amari Cooper only has 52 receiving yards in those outings combined.

Of course, those same numbers could also be used to make the case that Dallas aren’t as good as their record suggests and could lose regardless of who they send out. But New York are limping across the line as well in 2018. Saquon Barkley has averaged just 2.1 yards per carry the last two weeks, perhaps showing signs of hitting the rookie wall.

Cowboys win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Cowboys to win, Ezekiel Elliott & Amari Cooper both to score TDs….8/1

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 9.25pm GMT)

The Browns’ renaissance (OK, the decision to fire Hue Jackson) came too late for a run at the playoffs. But victory here would complete a series sweep against the Ravens, potentially cost their opponents a division title, and allow Cleveland to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2007. So, yeah, they should still be up for it.

This is a very different Baltimore team, however, to the one they beat in Week 5. The Ravens are averaging more than 218 yards rushing per game since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. For all their defensive creativity under Gregg Williams, Cleveland have not been especially effective against the run.

If Baltimore can control the ball, as they have so effectively in recent weeks, then they can also prevent Baker Mayfield from having the kind of big day he managed in the previous meeting: when he threw for 342 yards. We are well past the point where anyone should be doubting the rookie’s talent, or indeed that Cleveland are a very good team. But Baltimore, at home, should still be better.

Ravens win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Ravens to win, Lamar Jackson 2+ passing TDs, 1+ rushing TD….6/1

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington (Sunday, 9.25pm GMT)

Remember how I said this hasn’t been an easy week to find six worthy games for the Pick Six? Yeah. Philly are suddenly looking like the team that won the Super Bowl again, with Nick Foles behind centre and leading them to wins over the playoff-bound Rams and Texans in the past fortnight. They crossed the 30-point threshold in both games. Washington haven’t gone beyond 16 since Week 12.

Is there anything here for the Eagles to worry about? Complacency can hardly be an issue, given that they still need to win and get help from elsewhere (a Vikings defeat) to make it into the postseason. They are still vulnerable against the run – over the past 10 games, the Eagles have allowed 5.94 yards per carry on first down.

Washington’s Adrian Peterson contributed to that number with a 90-yard touchdown when they met in Week 13. He remains a player with a chip on his shoulder and a sense of something to prove. But, no, I don’t think that will be enough.

Eagles win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Eagles to win, Nick Foles 3+ passing TDs, Josh Johnson 1+ interception….11/2

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 9.25pm GMT)

How do the Bears approach this game? They do technically still have a chance to earn a first-round bye for the playoffs, but only if the 49ers win on the road against the Rams. Failing that, they will stay as the NFC’s third seed regardless of whether they beat Minnesota. And there is a strong chance that they will be facing the Vikings again in the Wild Card round.

So would the smartest move be to rest starters and keep them fresh for the match-up that matters? Or, at the very least, can we expect a vanilla gameplan that avoids giving too much away? Not everyone will agree on this. Some would argue that it still makes best sense to try to eliminate a dangerous division rival while you have the chance.

But there’s the thing: Minnesota really do look dangerous right now. The defence has found its groove, giving up just two touchdowns in three games. Even in defeat to Seattle, they held Russell Wilson to 10 completions on 20 attempts for 72 yards. The offence is going places, too, piling up 68 points in two games since Kevin Stefanski took over as interim offensive co-ordinator and reprioritised the running game. Even if the Bears go all out, it is no certainty they will prevail.

Vikings win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Vikings to win, Dalvin Cook 100+ rushing yards & 1+ TDs….5/1

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (Monday, 1.20am GMT)

What a peculiar season this has been for Indianapolis. After losing five of their first six games, they have won eight of the last nine, yet the variance in performance has been striking at times. This team was shut out by the Jaguars, then won on the road in Houston a week later. It smashed the NFC East-leading Cowboys 23-0 and then barely squeaked past the Giants.

And now the Colts find themselves in a straight head-to-head showdown for the AFC’s final playoff berth. Tennessee are on an impressive run of their own, with six wins in eight games (though one of the two defeats was a 38-10 shellacking in Indianapolis). Unfortunately, they are also in the midst of an injury crisis.

Defensive end Jurrell Casey – the team’s sack leader – was the latest to be added to injured reserve this week. Right tackle Jack Conklin and tight end Jonnu Smith have both already been sent there since the start of December. Oh, and then there’s Marcus Mariota. The quarterback left last week’s game against Washington with a neck injury, and only returned to limited practice on Thursday.

Colts win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Colts to win, Andrew Luck 350+ passing yards & 3+ passing TDs….10/1

Or perhaps you fancy one of these:

Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys & Vikings ALL to Win….20/1
5+ of Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys and Vikings to Win….3/1
Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys and Vikings 20+ points each….12/1

Think you can pick a winner? How about all six? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

OVERALL STANDINGS

52 – KEVIN JACKSON
50 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
49 – OWEN MARSDEN, PAOLO BANDINI
48 – JROSCOW
46 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN
44 – GAZM013
43 – THOM OWEN
41 – JOHN O’GORMAN
38 – POMPEYDINO
37 – AALIPOUR1, JAKE BURTON
26 – JOSH PEACOCK
20 – MATTHEW SHERRY
19 – JAYESH PATEL
15 – SCAMPTON
14 – TED BOVIS
13 – ROB ALLEN
5 – STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, ITSMILKS, KPERSON, LEEDER, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, CRAGGLES, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, LEE JELF, LEONPERRY, LEWIS, MORN01, PETER MORAN
2 – BARRY MCNEIL, CHRISTIE PEARSON, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ROBLAWTON