Like Johnny Hekker heaving a fake punt towards the end zone, the Pick Six contest is here to remind you never to give up on your dreams.

Well, not if your dreams involve predicting NFL games better than some people you’ve never met online, at any rate. You’ll probably never complete a pass in the NFL like he has. Sorry.

This year’s contest remains wide open, with still no player yet managing to nail more than four out of six picks in a given week. OWEN MARSDEN was one of three players to get that many last week, and joins CRAIG LLEWELLYN at the top of the overall standings as a result. You can find those at the bottom of the column, but first here are this week’s games:

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 6pm GMT)

The Colts won four games in 2017, and half of them were against Houston. Those, though, were different times. Neither team had their starting quarterback available for either fixture. JJ Watt was missing for Houston as well.

Despite ruder health this season, both teams still find themselves in precarious spots. Luck has had a transformative impact on the 1-2 Colts’ offense, but questions linger about his arm strength after coaches subbed in Jacoby Brissett for a Hail Mary attempt at the end of last week’s loss to the Eagles.

Luck’s 5.5 air yards per passing attempt are lowest among starting quarterbacks, though a preference for quick-developing plays could also be explained as smart coaching for a team with plenty of question marks along the offensive line. It certainly would be a viable approach against a 0-3 Texans defence whose greatest strength lies with its pass rush.

Colts win

PAOLO’S PUNT:  Colts to win and total points under 40… 4/1

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 6pm GMT)

How to make sense of these Lions? Blown out by the Jets in week one, then second best to the 49ers in week two (even if a fourth-quarter rally made things look closer than they felt), Detroit followed up by not just beating the Patriots but bulldozing them.

Did this team suddenly remember how to run the ball after half a decade? Rookie Kerryon Johnson became their first 100-yard rusher since Thanksgiving 2013. The Cowboys should offer greater resistance, yet their own status as the NFL’s third-ranked defence feels a little flimsy given a schedule that has pitted them only against the Seahawks, Giants and Panthers so far.

I’m a little sceptical of Dallas more broadly after their loss to Seattle. This is a team producing six yards per carry on the ground, but which cannot translate that into anything meaningful as long as the passing game continues to flatline. Dak Prescott has not thrown for more than 170 yards in a game yet. The Lions just held Tom Brady to 133.

Lions win

PAOLO’S PUNT:  Lions to win, Matt Stafford 3+ passing TDs, Dak Prescott 1+ interceptions… 8/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears (Sunday 6pm GMT)

At time of writing, the Buccaneers still have refused to divulge which of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston will be behind centre. More than that, Dirk Koetter and his staff are actively working to conceal their decision. First team snaps were split evenly between the two during the portion of practice that was open to the media on Thursday.

Like many others, I struggle to see how Tampa Bay could drop a quarterback who has thrown for more than 400 yards in every game so far. Stretching back to 2017, Fitzpatrick has now started six of their last 12 games and won four of them. Winston has started the other six and led his team to victory just once. Each player has thrown five interceptions in that span but Winston also has seven fumbles to Fitzpatrick’s none.

Whichever quarterback starts can expect a tough game. The Bears lead the NFL with 14 sacks in three games. No opponent has been able to run the ball effectively against them yet, and it is hard to envisage Peyton Barber being the man to change that. Chicago have their own problems on offence with a struggling Mitch Trubisky, but I don’t see this one as a high-scoring game.

Bears win

PAOLO’S PUNT:  Bears to win, Khalil Mack 1+ sack, Ryan Fitzpatrick 2+ interceptions… 6/1

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 9.05pm GMT)

There has been a peculiar dynamic to games between these division rivals, by which the road team always seems to win. The Seahawks have come out on top on four of their last five visits to Glendale, with the remaining game finishing in a tie. Arizona are 4-1 on their last five trips to Seattle.

Were Sam Bradford still starting at quarterback for the Cardinals, then you could feel confident of such trends continuing. But he is not. Josh Rosen replaced him late in last week’s loss to the Bears and, whilst he looked every bit the rookie thrown in at the deep end, he did offer some glimpses of his talent as well. With a week’s practice as the starter, it’s hard to know what to expect next.

He cannot do a lot worse than Bradford, who had a 62.5 passer rating through three starts. The Seahawks are also beatable, with a broken-down offence that will not be fixed by Doug Baldwin’s return from injury alone. Yet I cannot shake the feeling that even an excellent Rosen might not be enough on a team that has played as badly at times as anyone in the entire league.

Seahawks win

PAOLO’S PUNT:  Seahawks to win, Russell Wilson 2+ passing TDs, Josh Rosen 2+ interceptions… 7/1

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 9.05pm GMT)

Add Baker Mayfield to the list of quarterbacks feeling pleased that the Raiders traded away Khalil Mack. The quarterback could have been making his first NFL start on the road against one of the best pass rushers in the league. Instead, he gets to square off with an Oakland defence that ranks last, with three sacks in as many games, and which has produced just a single turnover in that time.

The temptation to get swept up in the Mayfield hype is strong. “He’s got the magic,” opined Raiders head coach John Gruden this week and, after watching the comeback that the rookie orchestrated against New York last week, it is hard to disagree. The confidence, and more importantly the velocity, with which he worked the ball into tight spots was astonishing.

Still, we ought to check ourselves. The Browns have not won a road game since 2015. They have not won two games back-to-back since the year before that. The Raiders are still the betting favourites at home. But I’m not just backing Mayfield. I’m backing a team that already looked like it might be close to turning a corner without him. Where the Raiders have struggled on defence, Cleveland already have 11 takeaways.

Browns win

PAOLO’S PUNT:  Browns to win, Baker Mayfield 250+ passing yards, Carlos Hyde to score a TD… 13/2

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday 1.20am GMT)

Brace yourselves for another Steelers shootout. I’m not sure Pittsburgh have any other way to win at the moment, between a porous defence and a running game that simply is not as reliable as it was with Le’Veon Bell in the backfield.

That is not a knock on James Conner. He has been excellent, but he is less subtle in his approach. Bell, at his best, is an expert at biding his time and extending a play. His replacement is more likely to look for the early cutback and hit the hole hard. I think the Ravens have the tools to deal with that kind of player, especially with CJ Mosley looking likely to feature after he returned to practice on Thursday.

I have no doubts that the Steelers boast the better weapons in the passing game. It speaks to Antonio Brown’s excellence that 210 receiving yards and two touchdowns through three games are being discussed like some kind of slump. But the Ravens have given Joe Flacco a versatile group to throw to this season and, unlike Pittsburgh, they have a defence to match.

Ravens win

PAOLO’S PUNT:  Ravens to win, Ben Roethlisberger 300+ passing yards, Alex Collins to score a TD… 7/1

Or perhaps you’d prefer Colts, Lions, Bears, Seahawks, Browns & Ravens – All to Win… 66/1!

Overall standings

11 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN, OWEN MARSDEN
10 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
7 – GAZM013, TED BOVIS
6 – JOHN O’GORMAN, JOSH PEACOCK, MATTHEW SHERRY, PAOLO BANDINI,
5 – POMPEYDINO, STEFF HARRIES
4 – ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, KPERSON, RANDY BULLOCK, THOM OWEN
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, K.JACKSON, MORN01, PETER MORAN,
2 – AALIPOUR1, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, KEVIN JACKSON, LEE C,
1 – ITSMILKS, ROB ALLEN, ROBLAWTON

Think you can pick a winner? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

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