Never before have we witnessed such prolific scoring in the NFL. Through four weeks, teams have combined for 3,030 points and 344 touchdowns – with a whopping 228 of those through the air. All of these are league records for this early stage of the season.

And yet, right here on the Pick Six contest, it’s the opposite story. A month in, and not one person has managed to predict every game correctly in a given week. Reluctantly, however, I must inform you that Gridiron’s own editor, Matthew Sherry, last week became the first person to get five.

My friends, we cannot let this stand. You can find the overall standings at the bottom of this column, as well as the comments section where you can leave your selections. Before that, here are this week’s games:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 6pm GMT)

Where else could we start but Kansas City? In one corner, a team that leads the league in scoring, with a quarterback who has thrown 14 touchdowns and no interceptions. In the other, a team that has given up the fewest points, yards and passing yards.

The Jaguars’ defense was built for challenges like this. Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye are the best cornerback tandem in the league. Tashaun Gipson, at safety, has already shut down Rob Gronkowski, and will not fear a match-up with Travis Kelce. Linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith have the speed to track down Patrick Mahomes if he tries to break the pocket – which Jacksonville have correctly identified as a top priority.

But you could just as easily spin the proposition around and argue that Kansas City have too many options on offence to be subdued. Mahomes came up against a good defence in Denver last week and threw for a modest 151 yards over the first three quarters, only to exceed that figure in the fourth alone. When the Broncos took away Kelce and Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs turned to Kareem Hunt, who raced to 175 yards on 22 touches.

So, honestly, you can pick your poison on this one. But we’re still early enough in the season that I can feel good taking the Andy Reid-coached team.

Chiefs win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Chiefs to win, Kareem Hunt 80+ rushing yards, Pat Mahomes 2+ passing TDs….4/1

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (Sunday 6pm GMT)

What went wrong for the Broncos during the final act of that defeat to Kansas City? It is easy to point to Mahomes and unlikely left-handed completions, but Denver were also the authors of their own demise. Why would a team that was averaging more than seven yards per carry abandon the run game when trying to defend a lead in the fourth quarter?

Head coach Vance Joseph has spoken of wanting to get the ball in the hands of Royce Freeman more. It is not just the third-round pick’s impressive form that makes this a good idea, but that of the offensive line in front of him. Broncos players are averaging 4.3 yards before contact on rushing plays this season. Fewer than half of teams are making more than that per carry in total.

There is scope to build on such numbers against a middle-of-the-pack Jets defence. Sam Darnold, like Mahomes, is athletic enough to escape the pocket and make plays, but he is also far more prone to mistakes.

Broncos win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Broncos to win, Sam Darnold 1+ interceptions, Denver 2+ sacks…11/4

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 6pm GMT)

Both these teams were popular Super Bowl picks in preseason but, thanks to some catastrophically poor play on defence, each has mustered only a single win. The Falcons do at least have a good excuse following a brutal series of injuries on that side of the ball. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is the latest to be ruled out, joining linebacker Deion Jones as well as safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen.

Sure, the Steelers are doing without Ryan Shazier, but their problems run deeper. Former first-round pick Artie Burns looks ever more like a bust at corner and they have been torched repeatedly by the deep ball. Even if Joe Haden can slow down Julio Jones, Atlanta appear to have found a very viable alternative target in Calvin Ridley.

Pittsburgh, though, did at least show signs that they might be adjusting in the second-half of their loss to Baltimore last week, dropping a second safety deep and abandoning the single-high coverages that were repeatedly getting exposed. I still expect a shoot-out here, but at least with starters healthy there is scope for the Steelers to make marginal gains. Atlanta, with an endlessly rotating cast of healthy players, must run just to stand still.

Steelers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Steelers to win, Ben Roethlisberger 300+ yards passing, Antonio Brown & JuJu Smith-Schuster both to score TDs…9/2

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (Sunday 6pm GMT)

The Packers are running out of receivers. Geronimo Allison looks unlikely to feature this weekend as he works through the league’s concussion protocol, while Randall Cobb and Davante Adams missed practice on Thursday with hamstring and calf injuries respectively. Their progress over the coming days can only have a major impact on this game.

This would be an inopportune week to be missing downfield threats. As noted in the Detroit Free Press, the Lions have given up 10 plays of 25 yards or more in their three of their losses this year. During their lone, surprising, win over New England, they did not give up any of more than 20.

Aaron Rodgers, we know, is capable of hitting the deep ball though, in practice, this season he has not been able to do so often behind a struggling offensive line (only six other quarterbacks have been pressured more often this season). But the presence of his explosive namesake, Aaron Jones, in the backfield should help. The tailback had six rushes of 20+ yards last season – 11th-most in the league – on just 81 attempts. )

Packers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Packers to win, Aaron Rodgers more passing yards than Matt Stafford, Stafford 1+ interceptions…11/2

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 9.25pm GMT)

A rematch of January’s NFC title game, though neither team is playing at anything close to the level that they were back then. The Vikings’ 1-2-1 record is troublesome enough before you consider that they got whipped at home by the Bills, while Philadelphia gave up three fourth-down conversions on the final drive alone as they lost to Tennessee in overtime last week.

For me, though, the reigning champs still have a lot more to feel good about than their opponents. Carson Wentz is back, and played well against Tennessee. The Eagles’ defence has some problems on the back end, which were exploited by Marcus Mariota late in last week’s game, but they still own a deep group of quality pass rushers. That augurs well against opponents who have given up 81 quarterback pressures already this season – most in the league.

Eagles win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Eagles to win, 6+ TDs in the game…2/1

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans (Monday 1.20am GMT)

Ezekiel Elliott is having a heck of a season. His 426 rushing yards are almost 100 more than the next most productive runner, Todd Gurley, and there is little reason to imagine that he is going to slow down against a Houston defence that is giving up 123.2 yards per game on the ground.

What changed for Dallas last weekend was that they finally got some good production out of the passing game. Dak Prescott had not thrown for more than 170 yards in any of their first three games, but managed 255 – on an impressive 9.4-per-attempt average – against Detroit. His most productive target? Elliott again, with four receptions for 88 yards.

Is such reliance on one player sustainable? I remain unconvinced but, after picking against the Cowboys last week, this time I’m leaning their way. That has a lot to do with a Dallas pass rush, which ranks third in the league with 14 sacks, going up against an offence that has allowed Deshaun Watson to be sacked 17 times in four games.

Cowboys win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Cowboys to win, Ezekiel Elliot 100+ rushing yards and to score 2+ TDs…18/1

Or perhaps you fancy one of these:

Chiefs, Broncos, Steelers, Packers, Eagles and Cowboys all to win…40/1

Any 5 of Chiefs, Broncos, Steelers, Packers, Eagles and Cowboys to win…11/2

Chiefs, Broncos, Steelers, Packers, Eagles and Cowboys 20+ points apiece…5/1

OVERALL PICK SIX STANDINGS

14 – OWEN MARSDEN
13 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN
11 – MATTHEW SHERRY, WEST COAST OFFENSE
10 – GAZM013
9 – PAOLO BANDINI
8 – JOHN O’GORMAN, JOSH PEACOCK, K.JACKSON, POMPEYDINO, TED BOVIS,
7 – THOM OWEN
5 –STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, KPERSON, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – AALIPOUR1, ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, JROSCOW, MORN01, PETER MORAN,
2 – DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ITSMILKS, ROB ALLEN, ROBLAWTON

Think you can pick a winner? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

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