Even the best are entitled to the occasional off-day. Aaron Rodgers made clear that he thought so when he voiced his support for Mason Crosby after the Packers kicker missed four field goals and an extra point in last week’s defeat to the Lions.

But folks, this is getting embarrassing now. Five weeks into the NFL season and not one person has managed to achieve the SkyBet Pick Six that the title of this column demands. And, let’s be clear, I am by no means focusing on that to distract you from the reality that yours truly has not gone above 50% yet in a single week.

No, let us focus instead on showering JROSCOW in praise after he led the way with five out of six last time out. And then crack on with this week’s games.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (Sunday 6pm BST)

Nobody ought to be underestimating the Browns any more. That Ravens team they beat last weekend had arrived in Cleveland with a 3-1 record and an offence that was averaging 30.8 points per game. It managed nine in four quarters plus overtime at FirstEnergy Stadium. As Carlos Hyde put it so perfectly afterwards: “We ain’t no joke”.

Nor, though, are the Chargers, whose only two defeats have arrived against the Rams and Chiefs. In fact, their greatest deficiency might be one that they share with Cleveland: unreliable kicking. Caleb Sturgis has missed extra points for three weeks running for LA. The Browns replaced Zane Gonzalez with Greg Joseph after misses by the former cost them potential wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh.

So perhaps this will be another game decided by a special teams snafu. But, if not, I like a Chargers offence that leans so heavily on quick passes to running backs to avoid the takeaways that have been essential to Cleveland’s successes. The Browns lead the league with 15 turnovers, but only three teams have given away fewer than LA’s five.

Chargers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Chargers to win, Melvin Gordon 100+ scrimmage Yards & to score a TD….7/2

Carolina Panthers @ Washington (Sunday 6pm BST)

It probably says more about the state of the NFC East than it does about Washington that they currently sit top of the division. They have alternated wins with losses to reach 2-2, most recently getting blown out by the Saints.

More troubling to me than the 43 points they shipped were the miscues and miscommunications. Alex Smith has a reputation as a safe pair of hands at quarterback but some of the throws he made were plain ugly. A team coming off a bye should not have looked this far out of sync. It is hard to feel confident of improvement now as they prepare for this game on a short week.

Carolina have problems of their own. This is a team that only beat the Giants, at home, courtesy of a 63-yard field goal as time expired. But they have scope to improve with Greg Olsen optimistic of making his return from a fractured foot on offense, and Thomas Davis back from suspension on D. And, hey, if they do need Gano to seal the deal again, he might just enjoy it a little bit more against the team that cut him for Billy Cundiff in 2012.

Panthers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Panthers to win, Cam Newton 1+ passing TD & Cam Newton 1+ rushing TD….11/2

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (Sunday 6pm BST)

You can’t fault Andrew Luck for effort. Between defeats to Houston and New England, the Colts quarterback threw a whopping 121 passes in five days. He completed 64.5% of them, too, with seven touchdowns and just a pair of interceptions. But the Colts lost both games, and Frank Reich is the first to acknowledge that such a heavy reliance on one player is not often a recipe for success.

With Marlon Mack set to return from his hamstring injury, there ought to be scope for the head coach to find a little more balance. Losing guard Matt Slauson to injury is damaging, but offset by the anticipated season debut of another veteran lineman, left tackle Anthony Castonzo.

The Colts are missing their number one receiver in TY Hilton, too, but then New York are expected to be without Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine at corner. Case Keenum put up 377 passing yards against this defence, but was undone by turnovers and the brilliance of Jamal Adams at safety. For all the other considerations here, the key one is still the difference made by Luck behind centre.

Colts win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Colts to win, Andrew Luck 300+ passing yards & 2+ passing TDs….11/2

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 6pm BST)

It’s not just the 4-1 record that tells us Cincinnati have been the best team in the AFC North so far this season. Andy Dalton is enjoying one of the best years of his career. Dig into the detail of his passing numbers and we can see that he is, above all, excelling under pressure – averaging 8.0 yards per attempt when hurried or hit. Only in 2015 did he perform better on that metric.

Having a deep and talented receiving corps helps when you need to get the ball out quickly. The emergence of rookie Tyler Boyd as a compliment to AJ Green has been a boon. Losing Tyler Eifert at tight end hurt, but Giovani Bernard has already picked up some of the slack with his pass-catching out of the backfield.

In any case, a capacity to get the ball out when under pressure will be a key asset for Dalton against opponents who lead the league with 19 sacks. The Bengals have beaten Pittsburgh just eight times in 30 attempts under head coach Marvin Lewis. As good as Cincy have been, this will be widely perceived as the first true test of their credentials.

Bengals win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Bengals to win, AJ Green to score a TD, Andy Dalton & Ben Roethlisberger 1+ interceptions each….6/1

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 6pm BST)

The first of this year’s London games features two teams with a lot to prove. In return for a reported $100m contract, Jon Gruden has the Raiders at 1-4. Seattle are 2-3 and put up a good fight on the way to a narrow loss against the LA Rams last week, but their only wins so far have come against the struggling Cardinals and Cowboys.

What the Seahawks do have going for them is a little bit of optimism. The offensive line has been drastically improved by the addition of DJ Fluker at right guard. Since he stepped into the line-up in week three, Seattle has produced a 100-yard ball-carrier in every game. Chris Carson and Mike Davis ought to make hay against a Raiders defence that ranks 28th in the NFL against the run.

Meanwhile, Gruden has been making headlines with a confession that he detests long flights. “My son was a weight-lifter, he won a power-lifting championship in Belarus,” the coach told reporters in Oakland. “I had to fly 14 hours. I had to fly home 14 hours. I had vertigo for a month. I couldn’t even lay down. The house was spinning … I’m not a great traveller. I’ll be honest. I hate it. I’m not good. So I’m concerned. I’m more worried about that than the goal-line offense right now.”

Seahawks win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Seahawks to win, Tyler Lockett & Marshawn Lynch both to score TDs….7/1

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (Monday 1.20am BST)

Don’t let Bill Belichick fool you, this is a game worth getting excited about. The Patriots are the reigning AFC champs with one of the game’s greatest-ever players behind centre. Kansas City lead the conference this season with a perfect 5-0 record and a 23-year-old quarterback who is setting the league alight in his first season as a starter.

Andy Reid knows a thing or two about getting after a Belichick defence. It was only last September that the Chiefs put up 42 points (and 537 yards) against the Patriots with Alex Smith taking the snaps. Who could forget the 41-14 beatdown in 2014, or the ludicrously premature claims by some analysts that we had seen the beginning of the end of Tom Brady?

Strangely, though, I think the Pats may fare better this time around. Smith, for all his limitations, had been around the block enough times to know how to handle himself against a coach who will have some wrinkles ready to test a young quarterback like Mahomes. The return of Julian Edelman, moreover, has given me more confidence in New England’s capacity to move methodically on offence, keeping Kansas City’s electric offence off the field.

Patriots win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Patriots to win, Tom Brady 270+ passing yards & 3+ passing TDs, Josh Gordon to score a TD….8/1

Or perhaps you fancy one of these:

5 or more of Chargers, Panthers, Colts, Bengals, Seahawks & Patriots to win…40/1

Chargers, Panthers, Colts, Bengals, Seahawks & Patriots 20+ points each….9/2

Think you can pick a winner? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

OVERALL PICK SIX STANDINGS

17 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN
16 – OWEN MARSDEN
15 – MATTHEW SHERRY
14 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
13 – GAZM013
12 – JOHN O’GORMAN,POMPEYDINO, k.JACKSON
11 – PAOLO BANDINI
10 – JOSH PEACOCK
9 – TED BOVIS, THOM OWEN
8 – JROSCOW
6 – AALIPOUR1
5 – STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, KPERSON, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, JROSCOW, MORN01, PETER MORAN, LEON PERRY, JAKE BURTON
2 – DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C, CHRISTIE PEARSON
1 – ITSMILKS, ROB ALLEN, ROBLAWTON

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