Sunday, November 4th, 2018

Pick Six: Week 9

Paolo Bandini

Pick Six: Week 9

Paolo Bandini NFL 12 Comments

Remember how trade deadline day used to be a dull occasion? Not so any more, with the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate, HaHa Clinton-Dix and Dante Fowler all on the move. But can any of these players shake up the standings as dramatically as WEST COAST OFFENCE has right here on the Pick Six?

After nailing five correct predictions in consecutive weeks, they followed with a perfect six last time out – vaulting themselves four points clear in first place. A virtual ovation is due. Still, the chasing pack need not despair just yet. Just look at the work being done by JROSCOW, our only previous six-picker, who has clambered all the way to joint-fourth despite missing the first three weeks.

You’ll find the full standings at the bottom of the article. But first, here are this week’s games:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 6pm GMT)

Are these still the same teams that squared off in Pittsburgh at the end of September? Baltimore won comfortably at Heinz Field, Joe Flacco torching the Steelers for 363 yards through the air whilst his team-mates on defence were at their suffocating best. James Conner was allowed a paltry 19 yards on nine carries: an average of 2.1 per attempt.

The Ravens have won just one out of four games since, though, whereas Pittsburgh are 3-0 either side of a bye week. The feeling is that they are trending in opposite directions. Baltimore’s D remains statistically the stingiest in the league, yet Cam Newton and the Panthers moved the ball at will on the way to a 36-21 victory last week.

The sight of cornerback Marlon Humphrey back at practice on Thursday is a boost, after he missed that game as well as the loss to New Orleans. His excellent coverage of Antonio Brown was a key element of the win in Pittsburgh, but Jimmy Smith has struggled since returning from his four-game suspension and the offensive line is beset by injury.

Steelers win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Steelers to win, James Conner and Antonio Brown both to score TDs, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco 250+ passing yards….7/1

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington (Sunday, 6pm GMT)

Washington pulled off a timely trade this week, sending a fourth-round pick to Green Bay in return for safety HaHa Clinton-Dix. Adding a former Pro Bowler to your secondary at any time can be handy, but especially so in the week that Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu come to town.

Clinton-Dix has already stated that he expects to play. On paper, he and DJ Swearinger have the potential to form one of the very best safety tandems in the league but NFL playbooks are not easily learned overnight.

Even without him, this Washington defence ranks fourth in the league for yards allowed. But they have been stouter against the run than the pass, and the concern has to be whether Alex Smith and the offence can keep up if this game turns into a shootout. The contrast between his performance against the Giants last weekend – throwing for 178 yards on a 5.6 average – and that of Ryan against the same opposition one week earlier – 379 yards, 9.7 average – feels instructive to me.

Falcons win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Falcons to win, Julio Jones 100+ receiving yards, Calvin Ridley to score a TD….7/1

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (Sunday, 9.05pm GMT)

It is common football parlance for coaches to talk about ‘taking away’ something their opponents do well. It is less common to see a team interpret that phrase as literally as Houston have this week, trading for Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas just as they prepare to visit Mile High Stadium.

Thomas had not been enjoying his most productive season, though there are good reasons to believe that he can fare better in Houston. Case Keenum lacks the arm strength to exploit match-ups outside and prefers to rely on his slot receivers. Deshaun Watson has no such trouble. He also has a brilliant top target already in DeAndre Hopkins, meaning that – for the first time in a long time – Thomas should not be facing number one cornerbacks.

The Broncos will hope to derail his Houston debut by denying Watson time to air the ball out. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb should fancy their chances against a Houston team who have given up two seven-sack games already this season. But JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney will hardly be feeling too discouraged, either, as they review tape of Denver left tackle Garret Bolles – whose five holding penalties are joint-most in the league.

Texans win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Texans to win, JJ Watt and Von Miller 1+ each….4/1

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday,9.05pm GMT)

In the six years since Russell Wilson became their starting quarterback, the Seahawks have won all 12 home games they have played against AFC opposition. Need I continue any further? Hmm? Yes? Oh. Huh. I really thought that was going to do it.

Well, alright, I can see why you might pick against them. The Chargers are 5-2 and coming off a bye, during which time Melvin Gordon has returned to practice (though at time of writing his status for Sunday is still up in the air). They are averaging more than 400 yards of offence per game and defensive co-ordinator Gus Bradley, who coached in Seattle for three years, is well positioned to advise on the schemes they may face.

But LA’s 5-2 record still feels like it might be misleading. None of the teams they have beaten currently own a winning record. They lost by 10 to the Chiefs and 12 to the Rams. Joey Bosa is still working his way back from a foot injury and, without him, a middle-of-the-pack pass rush may struggle to get much change out of a drastically improved Seattle offensive line.

And, oh, did I mention the thing about Russell Wilson never losing at home to an AFC team?

Seahawks win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Seahawks win, Chris Carson and Melvin Gordon both to score a TD….5/1

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 9.25pm GMT)

The Rams are 8-0, yet they required a timely fumble from Ty Montgomery to seal victory over Green Bay. Now they face their closest NFC challengers on the road: a Saints team whose only loss came in week one, when they were caught off-guard by an unexpected outbreak of Fitzmagic.

All over the field, the match-ups are fascinating. The combination of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh on the interior of LA’s defensive line poses a unique challenge, but New Orleans have allowed a league-low nine sacks to date. They gave up just one to the Ravens – who have otherwise stacked up 26 in seven games. Neither centre Max Unger nor guards Andrus Peat and Larry Warford expect to dominate Donald one-on-one but, with the right schemes, they might slow him down.

It is a similar story on the other side of the ball. Todd Gurley has more offensive touchdowns on his own this season than eight other NFL teams, but he will be running here into the jaws of the league’s number one rush defence. Even the Saints’ secondary has scope to improve as Eli Apple adjusts to his new setting after his debut last week.

For all of the above reasons, and many more, this game has the feel of an NFC title game preview. I expect it to be close. But I cannot yet bring myself to pick against the NFL’s lone unbeaten team.

Rams win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Rams to win, Todd Gurley and Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara all to score TDs….11/2

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (Monday, 1.20 am GMT)

This is only the second time Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have faced off and, barring a Super Bowl reunion, will most likely be the last. The respect between them is mutual. Rodgers watched Brady’s game film as a young quarterback, and calls him the greatest of all time.

Brady, meanwhile, has described Rodgers as “so much more talented than me”, contending that his counterpart could have posted 7,000-yard passing seasons in New England.

We can only hope that their duel is as entertaining as it was last time, when Green Bay prevailed 26-21 at Lambeau Field in 2014. Home field advantage belongs to New England this time around, and that matters in a season when Bill Belichick’s team are 4-0 in Foxboro’, but have lost to both Detroit and Jacksonville on the road.

Also significant in this match-up is the Ha Ha Clinton-Dix trade. Green Bay’s secondary exceeded expectations against the Rams last week, and especially in a first-half when they held LA to eight points. Belichick lavished praise on the rookie corner Jaire Alexander, suggesting that the Patriots might have drafted him were it not for Green Bay getting there first.

The first-round pick, though, cannot be everywhere. Clinton-Dix leaves a gap in the middle of the defence. Rob Gronkowski has struggled this season and does not look like fully healthy. Even at less than 100%, though, he can still be a nightmare for a team that lacks the tools to contain him.

Patriots win

PAOLO’S PUNT: Patriots to win, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady 3+ passing TDs each….5/1

Or perhaps you fancy one of these:

Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Seahawks, Rams and Patriots ALL to win…50/1

5+ of Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Seahawks, Rams and Patriots to win….6/1

Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Seahawks, Rams and Patriots to score 20+ points each….7/2

Think you can pick a winner? How about all six? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…

Overall standings

30 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
26 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN
25 – GAZM013
23 – JROSCOW, K.JACKSON, OWEN MARSDEN
22 – PAOLO BANDINI, THOM OWEN
20 – MATTHEW SHERRY
19 – POMPEYDINO
18 – AALIPOUR1
17 – JOHN O’GORMAN
14 – JOSH PEACOCK, TED BOVIS
11 – JAKE BURTON
5 – JAYESH PATEL, STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, ITSMILKS, KPERSON LEEDER, RANDY BULLOCK, SCAMPTON
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, LEE JELF, LEONPERRY, LEWIS, MORN01, PETER MORAN, ROB ALLEN
2 – CHRISTIE PEARSON, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ROBLAWTON

Comments 12

  1. Thanks for the shoutout Paolo, I’ll be humble and say that picking in the first 3 weeks is harder because all teams are more of a mystery, so I’d probably have gone 0-for-6 early on anyway!

    Steelers
    Washington
    Texans
    Seahawks
    Saints
    Patriots

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