Pick Six: Wild Card Weekend
There are many different ways to claim a championship. You can win the title game like New England did in 2016, with the help of a catastrophic implosion by your opponent. You could just get lucky and find yourself playing a Super Bowl against the Bills.
Or you can be like KEVIN JACKSON, who sealed his Pick Six regular season crown with a perfect round – correctly predicting all six games in Week 17. Only two others had managed that feat all year. None could keep pace through the full campaign.
I know a few of you have already congratulated him in last week’s blog but do join me in doffing your caps (virtual or otherwise) one more time all the same. We’ll run the postseason predictions as a fresh contest – Pick The Playoffs – so if you’re joining us late do jump on in. Then, at the end, we can combine the standings to crown an overall champion.
Final regular season standings can be found at the bottom of this article. But first, here are my picks for the Wild Card round.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (Saturday, 9.35pm GMT)
Less than a month has passed since the Colts’ last visit to Houston, when they beat the Texans 24-21 to keep their improbable playoff push alive. Does that give them an edge here? If anything, I’d say the opposite. The margins in the NFL are so tight; it’s easy to underestimate how hard it is to beat a good team twice, let alone in their own back yard.
This Colts team, though, keep on reeling me in. I tipped them to make the playoffs in preseason, largely on the basis of a healthy Andrew Luck. What I didn’t predict was how he would develop as the season progressed. The 60-yard missile he threw to TY Hilton on his last visit to Houston, two months after he got pulled off the field against Philadelphia so that Jacoby Brissett could attempt a Hail Mary, stands as evidence of how that throwing arm has regained full strength.
And now his offensive line is healthier, too. With centre Ryan Kelly back at practice this week, the Colts are expected to have all five starters together up front for the first time since Thanksgiving. They are getting better on the other side of the ball, too, with rookie linebacker Darius Leonard’s rapid rise earning him AFC defensive player of the month honours.
The Texans are at the other end of the spectrum: a quality team that I fear might just be wearing down late in the season. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 62 times: far and away the most in the league. JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins will both play, but were limited in practice this week. I think this might be a bridge too far.
Colts win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Colts to win, Andrew Luck 300+ passing yards, 3+ passing TDs & Marlon Mack to score a TD….13/2
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 1.15am GMT)
This could be an old-school game in prospect at Jerry World, between two teams who lean heavily on the run. Ezekiel Elliott was the NFL’s leading rusher in the regular season, yet Seattle still finished with 600 more yards on the ground as a team. To some extent, that is a question of commitment. The Seahawks were the only team in the entire league to run the ball more often than they threw it.
At a glance, that might seem to suit the Cowboys. They own one of the league’s stingier run defences, yet some opponents have found success against them in that area all the same. Indianapolis rushed for 178 yards in a 23-0 victory over the Cowboys in Week 15. Saquon Barkley raced to 109 yards on 17 carries in Week 17.
Dallas did squeak out a win over the Giants, but that is their only victory in six games this season when opponents have rushed for 100 or more yards. Seattle have gone over 150 yards on the ground in 12 of their past 13 games. They expect to have guard JR Sweezy back in the line-up. And if this game does come down to a big play or two through the air, I’m taking Russell Wilson over Dak Prescott there as well.
Seahawks win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Seahawks to win, Doug Baldwin, Ezekiel Elliott & Chris Carson to score a TD each…11/1
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 6.05pm GMT)
This is another match-up between teams who met late in the regular season. The Ravens crushed the Chargers 22-10 in LA just two weeks ago, so can we expect an even more emphatic win back on their own patch? Not necessarily. Home field is practically irrelevant to the Chargers, a team with no real support in LA and which posted a better record this season on the road. And the fact of having faced Baltimore so recently might be a real asset.
The Ravens’ remarkable turnaround through the second-half of this season has been founded on the switch to a read-option offence with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. His talent is the first building block here, but the second key aspect playing in Baltimore’s favour is the simple fact that nobody else is doing what they do.
This is the age of the downfield passing attack, and that is what defences are accustomed to playing against. Prepping a game-plan to counter Jackson in one week is hard. The Chargers didn’t get it right the first time, but they have a much better shot now, having learned a few things that worked and a few things that didn’t in Week 16.
I’m still picking against them, though. Baltimore’s defence is playing at such a high level right now, with six turnovers forced in the past two weeks. And, whilst the Chargers have been excellent on the road, playing in the earlier time slot is a real disadvantage for a travelling west coast team.
Ravens win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Ravens to win, Lamar Jackson to throw 1+ passing TD & 1+ interception & to score 1+ rushing TD….8/1
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (Sunday, 9.40pm GMT)
Is this really happening again? Can Nick Foles actually carry Philadelphia to a second consecutive Super Bowl? His performance over the past three weeks has been brilliant: completing 77% of his passes for 962 yards and leading the Eagles to victory over the LA Rams, Houston and Washington. And now we head into the playoffs, where he has achieved an outlandish 113.2 passer rating thus far in his career.
It is not just his personal magic, the ‘Big Nick Energy’, that gives Philadelphia a shot. Just like last year, the Eagles are winning games by dominating at the line on both sides of the ball. Offensive tackles Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are both healthy again after struggling with injuries in mid-season. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox has six-and-a-half sacks in the past five weeks.
And yet, Chicago are still better. This is a team that only lost two games all season in regulation. One which held the Rams to six points, leads the league in takeaways and whose Khalil Mack-led pass rush is essentially guaranteed to get some licks on Foles, who is playing with bruised ribs. Chicago got Kyle Long back to boost their own offensive line just last week and are about as healthy as any team going into the postseason. They ought to win. They will win. I think.
Bears win
PAOLO’S PUNT: Bears to win, Mitchell Trubisky 2+ passing TDs, Khalil Mack 1+ sacks, Nick Foles 1+ interceptions….7/2
Or perhaps you fancy one of these:
Colts, Seahawks, Ravens & Bears to all win….10/1
Colts & Seahawks to both win & all 4 starting Saturday QBs 200+ passing yards….10/1
Bears & Ravens to both win & all 4 Sunday teams to score 20+ points….16/1
Think you can pick a winner? How about all four? Why not leave your predictions in the comments section below…
FINAL REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS
58 – KEVIN JACKSON
55 – WEST COAST OFFENSE
54 – OWEN MARSDEN, PAOLO BANDINI
52 – JROSCOW
50 – CRAIG LLEWELLYN
48 – GAZM013
46 – THOM OWEN
44 – JOHN O’GORMAN
42 – AALIPOUR1, POMPEYDINO
40 – JAKE BURTON
26 – JOSH PEACOCK
20 – MATTHEW SHERRY
19 – JAYESH PATEL
15 – SCAMPTON
14 – TED BOVIS
13 – ROB ALLEN
5 – STEFF HARRIES
4 – ADAMCONOR90, ANDREW COSTANZA, ANDREW HULBERT, HEFIN DAVIES, ITSMILKS, KPERSON, LEEDER, RANDY BULLOCK
3 – ANDYJET88, CHARLESWALFORD, CRAGGLES, DAN SPENCE, DAVE H, JAMIE FERGUSON, LEE JELF, LEONPERRY, LEWIS, MORN01, PETER MORAN
2 – BARRY MCNEIL, CHRISTIE PEARSON, DAVID, KATHRYNFRAMP10, LEE C
1 – ROBLAWTON
Comments 12
Texans
Seahawks
Ravens
Bears
Congrats Kevin! And thanks again Paolo for running this.
Great slate of games this week.
Colts (I worry for Deshaun Watson behind that subpar line)
Seahawks (easiest call of the 4)
Ravens (Lamar to have his first 300 yard passing game due to LA’s linebacker injuries)
Eagles (I just have a feeling that they’ll dominate in the trenches in a 20-13 slugfest)
Colts
Cowboys
Chargers
Bears
Congratulations Kevin.
Houston
Dallas
Baltimore
Chicago
Colts
Cowboys
Ravens
Bears
Congratulations Kevin.
Come on the birds
Colts
Hawks
Ravens
Eagles
Colts
Cowboys
Ravens
Eagles
COLTS
SEAHAWKS
RAVENS
BEARS
Colts
Cowboys
Chargers
Bears
Texans
Seahawks
Ravens
Bears
Colts
Seahawks
Ravens
Bears
Colts
Cowboys (wishful thinking??)
Ravens
Bears