Shanahan wise to vagaries of seeding

In the gauntlet of the NFL playoffs, it is often the small advantages that can make the decisive difference. As they spent the first week of the postseason enjoying a greatly cherished bye, the San Francisco 49ers saw their list of seemingly significant edges balloon as the Wild Card round lived up to his name.

The Niners were already in a favorable spot after claiming the lone first-round bye in the NFC by finishing as the top seed in their conference, which also saw them secure home-field advantage for the duration of their potential run to the Super Bowl.

San Francisco’s odds of making such a run appear to have improved greatly with results on the NFC side in round one, with the teams seen as the 49ers’ chief rivals in the conference crashing out in stunning fashion. The Dallas Cowboys suffered humiliation as they were routed 48-32 by the seventh seed Green Bay Packers, while the defending conference champion Philadelphia Eagles saw their season end in meek fashion at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the nine-win NFC South champions.

With the prospect of a NFC Championship Game with either the Cowboys or Eagles removed from the equation, the 49ers are the overwhelming favourites with the bookmakers to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas next month.

But being tagged with such a status comes with one obvious drawback. There is now monumental pressure on the shoulders of San Francisco’s star-studded roster to get the job done and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2019 season. The Niners making the Super Bowl is no longer seen as a likelihood, it is now firmly the expectation.

So as the 49ers prepare to take on a dangerous young Packers team that will make the trip to Levi’s Stadium with nothing to lose and full of confidence after hanging nearly a half-century of points on the Cowboys, the challenge they face is to ensure the pressure of being the overwhelming favourites does not overwhelm them.

Of significant assistance in that regard is the calm and straight-talking presence of their head coach Kyle Shanahan, who prior to the playoffs suggested that an upset from one of the non-division winners in the NFC playoffs was more plausible than many perhaps thought.

Asked last week if he presumed the 49ers would simply play the winner of the Buccaneers-Eagles matchup and that both the sixth-seeded Los Angeles Rams and the Packers would lose their respective games, Shanahan replied:

“No, I don’t see it at all that way. Six and seven this year, has just as good of chance as one through five. So there’s no difference to me in any of the seeds and the teams. I believe every one of them have a real good chance, especially the ones you mentioned.”

Though the Rams were narrowly defeated by the Detroit Lions, Shanahan’s words ultimately proved prescient, and the events of Wild Card weekend – with the Packers producing a performance nobody expected and the Buccaneers backing into a division title and then brushing aside a Super Bowl team from last season – should help him sell the message that their seeding, and the advantages the 49ers have in playing at home and being extremely well rested will count for nothing if they do not play to their standard.

The remarks made by his players indicate Shanahan won’t need to do much work for that message to sink in, with the 49ers expressing a clear determination to maintain the levels they set during an outstanding regular season.

Nick Bosa, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, articulately encapsulated what it will take for the 49ers in the playoffs as they set out to end a long wait for a sixth Super Bowl title, their previous Lombardi Trophy having come during the 1994 season.

“Yeah, it’s all about the two-and-a-half hours you’re out on that field,” said Bosa. “No matter what kind of players you got, you got to be the best team for four quarters. There’s selfishness to the sport. Everybody’s trying to put food on the table for their families and make as much money as they can. And we’re obviously a great team and you’re selfless among the team, but when the playoffs come around, it’s just do your job, get off the field and move on, and that’s what I love about it.”

Having each player do their job and avoid getting lost in the hype is paramount for a 49ers team that is right to relish the postseason rather than be fearful of the repercussions of defeat, given the extraordinary amount of talent they possess across their roster.

The 49ers had nine players selected to the Pro Bowl Games, the NFL’s All-Star week that culminates in a flag football game, and seven given the vastly more prestigious title of All-Pro by the Associated Press. Five players were named as first-team All-Pros, with running back Christian McCaffrey and linebacker Fred Warner earning unanimous selection from the panel of writers and former players and coaches.

That total of first-team All-Pros was a league high, illustrating the depth of talent at the 49ers’ disposal. Whereas in previous years there were obvious, if minor, holes to poke in San Francisco’s roster, in the 2023 campaign they have proven much harder to identify.

The offense is a juggernaut, of which the focal point is Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner McCaffrey, who weaponised Kyle Shanahan’s attack following his arrival in a midseason trade with the Carolina Panthers last year. He led the NFL in the regular season with 2,023 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle each went for over 1,000 yards receiving, while ultra versatile wideout Deebo Samuel had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

McCaffrey and Samuel’s uniquely varied skill sets, with each adept at catching and running the ball out of the backfield and excelling as a receiver in the formation, combined with Shanahan’s unmatched ability to put his playmakers into open space, makes the 49er offense the most difficult to defend in the NFL. In 2023, it was taken to new heights by quarterback Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 draft, whose ability not only in executing Shanahan’s vision but in consistently making plays outside of the structure of scheme and hitting on downfield shots had him in the MVP conversation for most of the season. Purdy finished the regular season with a franchise record 4,280 yards, along with 31 passing touchdowns.

With Purdy protected by an offensive line featuring the game’s premier left tackle in Trent Williams, the 49ers have an offensive formula that has proven near-impossible to stop, and it is complemented by a defense that, while perhaps not quite of the same standard as in 2022, has addressed the two weaknesses that were most prominent last year.

The addition of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave in free agency has made the heart of the defensive line as formidable as formidable as the edge rush group led by Bosa. On the back end, cornerback has gone from a question-mark to a strength thanks to a career year from Charvarius Ward and superb strides from 2021 draft picks Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas.

In between the front and the secondary is Warner – and running mate Dre Greenlaw – the archetypal modern-day linebacker whose freakish athleticism for the position is complemented by a level of awareness few can claim to match. That blend of traits gives the 49ers the potential for versatility in pass defense that is inaccessible to many teams.

That is not to say there are no concerns. The interior of the offensive line struggled during a three-game losing streak prior to the 49ers’ Week 9 bye. On the defensive line, the 49ers had issues stopping the run – a must in playoff football – without defensive tackle Arik Armstead for the final five games of the season, while the cornerback depth behind Ward, Lenoir and Thomas could be considered thin.

Yet perhaps the most significant thing the 49ers have going for them beyond all the reams of talent is that, with Armstead back in the fray for the Divisional Round visit of the Packers, they go into the playoffs with their roster exceedingly healthy.

Beyond All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL back in November, the lone Niners starter confirmed as definitely out for Saturday’s primetime meeting with the Packers is defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who will miss at least one playoff game with a knee injury.

From rest, to health and the overall talent level, all the major advantages appear to be in the 49ers’ favour, though perhaps the biggest edge they have was one provided to them by Green Bay, whose beatdown of Cowboys was a helpful reminder of the dangers of postseason complacency, especially against a quarterback in Jordan Love coming off a sizzling three-touchdown performance in his playoff debut.

Warner said on his podcast ‘The Warner House’: “Jordan Love played the game of his life in his playoff debut. He’s been phenomenal down the stretch. It’s gonna be a huge test for us this weekend. I’m not taking the Packers lightly. The Cowboys must’ve taken the Packers lightly. We are going to have to put together a great week of preparation.”

In the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, the 49ers are attempting to finally put themselves over the top after a painful Super Bowl loss and successive NFC Championship Game defeats in their three previous appearances.

The stars appear to be aligning for the 49ers to do just that, but the most important tool in their vast arsenal may be a playoff mindset that helps them avoid falling into a trap against the Packers.